The situation is as follows:
- The Russians warned that if NATO fires long range rockets into Russia proper, the rockets that can only be aimed and fired by NATO personnel, NATO will be considered to be at war with the Russian Federation. Russia also “clarified” its nuclear doctrine, basically allowing the use of nuclear weapons if a nuclear-armed foe uses a proxy to wage war with Russia;
- USA and UK fired said missiles into the territory of RF;
- Russia responded by using a “Oreshnik” IRBM MIRV cluster, of kinetic impactors only, onto a rocket factory in Dnepropetrovsk;
- USA, UK and France announced that it’s basically a free-for-all, no red lines will be observed, and they launched another series of long range cruise missiles into Russia proper; this time several cluster warheads made it through and hit an airfield in Kursk;
- The Russians announced that “punishment” is being prepared, and the airspace around Kapustin Yar, from where “Oreshnik” was launched, is closed until Nov 30.
The political statements from the West indicate complete unwillingness/inability to de-escalate. The political statements from Russia indicate that they are no longer waiting for the West to come to their senses. Also, the Russians are making significant advances on the battlefield, indicating that the Ukrainian front line is collapsing. Also, statements from the future Trump administration indicate that they intend to continue with pressure on Russia.
It is my opinion that nuclear war is imminent. It’s only a matter of time until someone uses the first nuclear warhead, and then the pace will increase. It used to be decades/years between significant moves, then months, and now we are under a week already, and it seems to be exponentially decreasing. It will be days, then hours, and then it’s all automatic.