Countdown

I found this on Telegram this morning:

Australia’s Energy Minister: “We only have enough gasoline for 18 days, diesel fuel for 16 days, and aviation fuel for 14 days. And a ship from the Persian Gulf takes 2 to 4 weeks to arrive.”

I went to check the sources, and I found this. Basically, the statement was from the beginning of March, and the Russians just did the math, and they are very good at math. It checks out.

I would assume that everybody who is dependent on Arab oil is in a similar situation. The Russians and everybody attached to them as a source are perfectly fine. The American colonies are fucked.

This means that, as of now, Russia is the most powerful economic force in the world. They determine who lives and who dies. Everybody else is living on strategic reserves that are being depleted quickly, because they are trying to bring down oil prices in order to pretend that, politically, this is nothing. This means they will all run out of strategic reserves within two to three weeks, after which there’ll be doomsday.

So, either everybody instantly takes measures to extend the duration of their strategic reserve, by raising oil prices and rationing supply, and take measures to secure Russian oil, because it’s not sure how much of a surge in supply the Russians will be able to create, regardless of intent. Those things have technological limits. Pipelines are designed for some projected demand and so on.

Israel and America seems to have run out of air defence. Everything Iran launches now, hits the target. Iran, on the other hand, seems to be doing fine. They are just incredibly pissed. America will be forced to either evacuate their forces from the region, or use nuclear weapons to neutralise Iran. This choice will have to be made within a week. Also, the shortages of oil will become a thing of immediate concern within 7 to 10 days, which is half the time to projected end of supply. This is also the point where everybody starts to panic in earnest, because at that point even if everything instantly restarts, which it won’t, the shortages are already in the pipeline, baked into the supply chain. Also, one third of the world’s production of artificial fertiliser production is in the Gulf, and it’s been disrupted. This will automatically cause disruptions in food production, and higher food prices. It’s already baked into the supply chain. The other third of fertilisers comes from Russia. This makes Russia both untouched by this, and in high demand.

America formally has lots of oil and gas, but it remains to be seen how much of that exists on paper alone. A country that has as much oil as they claim to have wouldn’t need to deplete their strategic oil reserves as much as they are doing, which makes me think most of the data is fake, like everything that comes from America. This is now going to be tested in earnest.

Israel is having a strategic problem at the moment and probability of them using nuclear weapons to solve it is pretty high, in my assessment. Since they are open to air attacks now, the time to decide is already ticking.

This puts my assessment of probability of nuclear use by either America or Israel within two weeks at very high. Trump and the people around him sound completely irrational, as if they were getting high on their own supply for too long and they lost all connection to reality. Israel feels pretty desperate, like it’s now or never, they are faced with complete annihilation and they have to act now. There was a 4.2 magnitude earthquake in Negev desert, near Dimona, mid January, which looks like a nuclear test that nobody talked about. If that is so, it would mean that they wanted to know whether their stuff actually works before they used it.

On first nuclear use, I expect things to escalate rapidly.

 

Clinical

There’s a term I keep hearing on photographic forums, describing lenses: “too clinical”.

When I tried to establish what it meant, it turns out it means, basically, that it’s good. The flaws are corrected, sharpness is excellent, and so on. One would expect this to be a good thing, but then I understood what they meant: there are no optical artefacts to cover their arse. You can’t pretend you’re an artist because the lens creates an artificial sense of nostalgia caused by flawed optics of yesteryear. If you remove optical defects, and one’s “art” disappears because the underlying “too clinical” image is revealed as empty and pointless, it’s not a lens problem, it’s a photographer problem.

Taken with a very clinical lens on digital

I guess that’s the other side of the coin from people who think their pictures will stop being shit if they bought better lenses and cameras. There are people who make claims such as “double Gauss design is crap”, which shocked me immensely, as it is one of the best lens designs and some of the best work in the history of photography was produced by it. The reason why it’s “crap” is because the corner sharpness is quite poor wide open and remains weak until f/8 or so. There is also lots of chromatic aberration inherent to the design. Crap? Absolutely not. It’s a compromise that allows a 50mm lens to be small, light and cheap, which makes it one of the best optical designs in history. It leaves room for improvement if you make the lens big, heavy and expensive. Then you can have perfect corner sharpness at f/1.2.

People are exaggerating things greatly. In reality, yes, you can produce great work with flawed optics, and you can cover poor work under optical flaws and call it “character”. Sometimes, optical flaws can actually improve the image, for instance chromatic aberration can create “rainbows” on water droplets, and spherical aberration can introduce a “glow”. Sometimes, those effects can hit just right. I worked with flawed optics for decades, so I know how that works. Sometimes it’s wonderful, sometimes it ruins your image. In general, I prefer not to hide behind “character” of lenses. If you remove all of that and my photo is shit, then this is the truth of the situation: it’s just shit. Putting “character” on it just obscures the reality. I had that many times – tried to fix a photo in post, adding all kinds of effects, and it was still shit.

Sometimes, optical flaws actually help, but I wouldn’t make it a strategy.

Also, all the talk about colours is driving me crazy. I’ve seen a guy stating that default Sony colours are terrible, but with tweaking they can be made to look as great as Fuji colours, and then he shows some terrible crap with a greenish sky, that looks like a faded colour print that’s been kept near a stove since 1980s. I understand that those people in their 20s don’t actually know what film looked like when it was current; they know it only from the degraded, faded out stuff, and Fuji apparently panders to this illusion, creating jpeg profiles for their cameras that look like faded out or poorly processed film, because that’s what people think film is. If they processed film correctly, it would look “digital”. Also, I suspect lots of people making those claims about colours might be completely or partially colour blind. I shot film when it was actually good, and default Sony colour profiles are very film-like, and have been ever since R1, where the default profile looks very much like Kodak E100G, or, in amateur version, EB2 and EB3. The early profiles for A7II had very exaggerated greens, which in fact looked quite like Kodak EBX, or E100VS. The current profiles for A7RV look very film-like; the standard profile looks like E100G, and the vivid profile looks like Fuji Velvia, with its increased magenta tones. All in all, you can be sure that if I like the colours from it so much that I bought the second camera with the same sensor, there is very little room for improvement.

Fuji Velvia 100, Canon EOS 3, EF 85mm f/1.8

How can I be sure what film looks like? Because I made scans when it was current, and I checked them against the fresh slides on the lightbox. I know exactly what it looks like. Film looks “digital”, but when you would remove flaws from digital; make it sharper, less grainy and so on. It was very revealing when my son told me that, to him, 4×5” large format looks “digital”.

Today’s digital cameras are both very much film-like, and also much better than small-format film. I see it as a great thing. Also, the “clinical” lenses? Back in the day, those would have been called “dream lenses”. We did what we could with what we had, but this stuff we have today would have been seen as too good to be true, and if someone like Leica or Zeiss had made something like that, it would have cost a fortune. Only a few stellar designs from the past, such as the Zeiss APO Makro Planar, can compare with modern designs. Back in the day, we didn’t call them “clinical”, we called them dream lenses that everybody wanted, and only a few could afford.

Very clinical lens.

Offline

I recently had too much on my plate to be able to write anything relevant; karmic processing isn’t fun, and both Biljana and I have been under it quite severely. We barely even managed to go out and take pictures, and that really says something.

But, some pictures do get taken:

Biljana got her new Canon R5 body, which would normally mean lots of photography, but, as I said, karmic processing is no joke.

We are taking things very slowly and carefully. My new A7CR body and compact lenses are in the mail, and will arrive eventually.

A mini tripod did arrive, and that’s something I will eventually be able to put in the backpack and do some mountaintop astrophotography, unless end of the world comes first.

As for the war that’s currently going on, it’s proceeding as expected: the American attractor is empty; I removed its power cells, and now America can no longer sell its bullshit and everybody hates them. Similar things are happening with Israel, with a distinction that I didn’t have to do anything. In fact, I was careful not to mess with it, lest I collapse an avalanche of karmic rubble upon myself, now that I’m already overextended. Fortunately, Biljana is now strong enough to be able to help, so I don’t have to do everything on my own. She probably doesn’t feel all that fortunate at the moment, but that’s how that works. 🙂

Just a heads up, really; we are struggling, but managing to stay afloat. We had much worse in the early years; having money helps. Hvar also helps, but only in the recovery phase, after the karmic processing; we can heal from the damage more quickly here, and in the Plitvice lakes, than anywhere else. But while this stuff is ongoing, nothing really helps, and many things can make it worse.

Reviewers

I have a problem with reviewers of photographic equipment.

Whenever they review inexpensive equipment, they intentionally portray it in the worst way possible, because if they actually put in an effort and tried to get the best possible results out of a camera or a lens, the results would most likely be excellent, far beyond the ability to discern between an expensive and a cheap lens, and then one would be justified in asking what is the point of buying that ten times more expensive lens, which wouldn’t sit well with equipment manufacturers who sponsor the reviewers. So, when they review an entry level camera, they make nondescript snapshots, and when they review professional-level equipment, they put in an effort and make very good pictures.

I actually did an experiment once, between 2012 and 2016: I used an entry level camera with an entry level lens, Olympus E-PL1 with the m.Zuiko 14-42mm f/3.5-5.6 collapsible kit lens. This means I used it both hand-held and on a tripod, with a polariser and ND64, working with a very meticulous methodology for landscape photography. The results speak for themselves.

The problems arise when you want to print big, because yes, that lens is actually soft. However, you can obviously produce good results with it if you actually take photography seriously while using it. The problem is, apparently, that people don’t follow correct methodology when using cheap equipment, because “why bother”. As a result, you get reviews of kit lenses that produce pictures that look like shit, followed by a strong suggestion that a serious photographer should not bother with those, and should rather upgrade to “something serious”.

This has an unfortunate consequence of people overspending on equipment, and, if they don’t have the money, they feel they are missing out on “real photography” because they can’t afford professional gear.

This is an unexpected position from someone who actually has professional equipment; however, I know what I bought it for. When I went to the Plitvice lakes, I used almost exclusively the 24-105mm f/4 lens, and it worked great; everything was absolutely sharp. Getting everything sharp is actually super easy and inexpensive. The snobs make it sound like it’s some great achievement, but it’s not. For the most part, the expensive lenses are needed when you want almost nothing sharp.

For getting everything sharp, you need knowledge of theory, meticulous technique, and willingness to work very slowly and patiently. Yes, you need good equipment, but in this case “good” can be had very inexpensively. An old 4/3, APS-C or 35mm camera with 12MP of resolution or more. A decent kit lens. A tripod. A circular polariser and a ND filter. Wired release. Some money to go places where there’s something worth photographing. That’s it.

Sure, when you have specific things you want to do, there are lenses and cameras that answer those questions, but in order to even get to the point where you have those questions, just throwing money at the problem isn’t going to improve anything.

Weakest link

I (hopefully) just replaced the weakest link of my photographic system: the camera I take with me when I don’t feel there will be any pictures to be taken and I don’t feel like carrying a 1.5 kg rig for a walk for no obvious reason. It used to be this:

It’s Olympus E-PL1 micro four thirds camera with a collapsible kit lens, m.zuiko 14-42mm f/3.5-5.6. I stopped using it because it doesn’t have a viewfinder, the screen is terrible, the autofocus is terrible, and the camera is ergonomically so bad, that I almost gave up photography altogether, because of how much of a pain it was to use. However, when the iPhones started recording RAW, I replaced the E-PL1 with that; after all, I’m carrying the phone in my pocket every time I go out, and if it already has a camera that records 12MP RAW, why carry another camera that records 12MP RAW? The problem is, the 12MP number for the iPhone is a lie. The pictures are almost never good enough to make a sharp 4K wallpaper, which is somewhat more than 8MP. Also, they show signs of extreme overprocessing, regardless of the supposed RAW file. As a result, I took some very good pictures with a phone, that won’t magnify or print well:

The idea about replacing the Olympus with something modern with a viewfinder was in the back of my mind for years, and I considered Olympus OM-D E-M10:

This would work just fine, and could be purchased inexpensively used, but it doesn’t play well with my Sony system: different batteries and charger, different menu system to learn and be annoyed by, different (worse) autofocus to be annoyed by, and different lenses that can’t be mounted to anything else. Then my son bought Sony a6700 APS-C camera that fixes almost all of those issues, and I liked it a lot: the sensor is basically the APS-C crop of my A7RV, the menu system is either similar enough or the same, and it’s small and light enough. The problem: all the lenses would work in crop mode. This would mean buying APS-C lenses if I wanted to remain compact, or using my existing large lenses on a small body, which doesn’t solve anything. I liked the form factor a lot, and my thought was “if only that had a 35mm sensor inside”.

Well, in fact there is a thing with that form factor, but with A7RV 35mm sensor inside, and it’s called A7CR:

It solves the problem, however it’s very expensive and I’ve been considering it reluctantly, because lenses were always a greater priority than cameras, because they actually create the differences in images. It’s faulty logic, however, because if I keep taking pictures with an iPhone because I left my camera at home, I’m going to get iPhone picture quality, not A7RV picture quality. And I did keep taking pictures with the iPhone occasionally:

It’s nice, until you try to magnify it, and after you clone out the lens flare reflections from everywhere.

The new camera uses the same batteries and charger as A7RV, so no redundant clutter. It has the same menu system, same sensor, and same autofocus system as A7RV. For all intents and purposes, it’s A7RV hardware with worse viewfinder and screen, and less ergonimical body shape. However, it’s small enough to be pocketable in a big winter jacket; if I use a compact enough lens, of course.

And here’s where I had the second actual issue, other than the price. The only compact lens I have is the 50mm f/1.8. I then considered this, and decided that the 50mm will be just fine for what it does, but I do need a good compact wideangle to accompany it, so I got a Sigma 24mm f/3.5 DG DN, which is very small and very sharp corner to corner, but at the cost of aperture, which I don’t care for in wide angle, since I mostly use it at f/8 to get everything sharp. I just want it to be optically brilliant, cheap and pocketable, and it is all those things. I also decided to get the Sony FE 28-60mm f/4-5.6 collapsible kit zoom, which is extremely sharp in the centre, but less so in the corners, but which will serve the purpose of an “iPhone replacement”; basically, if I could use the m.zuiko 14-42mm collapsible kit, which is optically horrible by all accounts, and this lens is certainly better, if somewhat shorter in range, it’s going to do just fine for things that would otherwise be photographed with my phone.

So, this makes a compact 61MP 35mm system with three compact lenses: 24mm f/3.5, 28-60mm f/4-5.6 and 50mm f/1.8, and I didn’t want to buy any more lenses before I’m sure I actually have a problem they are meant to solve, because longer lenses tend to be big, and if I’m bringing big lenses, I’m bringing a proper camera system as well.

The second use for the A7CR is to serve as a second body, which means it’s a legitimate part of my main system, not just a sidekick. If I need a macro lens on one body and a wideangle on another, this now works. Also, all files have the same colours and noise profile since they are made with the same sensor, and both bodies have the same autofocus system. Also, all the small lenses work on the main camera; they, too, are a legitimate part of the system.

So, this stupid bullshit is what I’m preoccupying my mind with while waiting for the world to end. 🙂