A birdie told me that Deutsche Bank took hold of 9M oz (around 280 metric tons) of silver in the last month or so.
My interpretation: they know what’s about to happen to the price of silver and they are trying to save themselves from the mess they are in due to their rotting fake paper assets. Basically, this gives additional weight to the hypothesis stating that gold is going up, and silver will rise until it reaches the material scarcity equilibrium with gold, around 1:9 ratio or something similar.
I’ve been buying silver like crazy for the past month. There are too many indicators for me to ignore them. Also, DB is in problems that are too acute for them to get into this as a matter of long-term strategy. They must expect something to happen quickly.
I forgot one more important thing … what’s your current buying setup? You concentrate solely on buying silver or you buy both gold and silver and if so what’s the split of funds between gold and silver?
Currently I buy silver only, but my holding in gold is still a multiple of my holding in silver, so I have ways to go before I reach parity of value. Parity of mass is another matter. Since I buy on BV, I can quickly sell silver and buy gold if I feel gold is about to start outperforming. The penalty for doing that is minimal. With physical (OK, BV is physical too, but local vs. remotely stored sounds more clumsy), however, the penalty for selling and buying something else is prohibitive.
I’ll continue buying silver even as it grows more expensive, because it’s currently priced way below the scarcity ratio with gold, but compared to gold it’s quite risky, as historically speaking silver doesn’t really conform to scarcity/value expectations. It’s basically a gamble, but since I can get off the silver train quickly and painlessly, I think it’s worth it.
So, in order to swap silver to gold if gold launches itself to the Moon … how frequently should one, trading on Bullion Vault or any other gold/silver market, follow prices to decide whether is time to sell or buy or swap?
You can set up triggers for buy/sell if a price reaches a threshold. This helps somewhat, if something happens while you’re not watching, but the options you can set up are limited, you can’t actually write code. For that, you’d need to use some trading API, and I didn’t look into that.
What I do is follow the prices of both gold and silver in EUR and USD, and I also watch the silver/gold ratio chart. That last one is good for getting a quick insight into which metal is outperforming the other at the moment.
How frequently should you do anything, well, if you want to trade for daily differences, which I recommend only if you have serious money in metal because otherwise it’s not worth the time and effort, you basically have to watch it at all times, or at least have triggers set up. But with market going one way only like now, that’s actually risky because if you try to trade against the market you’ll lose money and get stressed out.
I recommend simply waiting for small daily drops in price initially, then buy and basically forget about it. Then, when people on the street start talking about how you need to get into silver because it’s the new bitcoin, sell it all and buy gold, because that’s when you know it’s overpriced, overhyped and it’s going to pop. 🙂
https://goldprice.org/charts/history/silver_30_day_gold_x.png?
I must admit I don’t know what to think of all this, and should I buy silver/gold. Mostly because I don’t have much spare cash, at least for now. I could make some savings but not for the next month or so, because during the summer my family lives on savings made during the rest of the year.
Do You think there is enough time for that, or should I buy food/cans ASAP instead from what’s left of our cash savings?
Well, if you don’t have the money, you obviously don’t buy it, because you’ll over-stretch yourself financially. Regarding stocking up on food, that’s something that will only last you a few weeks, it’s a band-aid measure that is necessary if there are short term interruptions in food supply, which is quite possible in several scenarios, and it’s cheap insurance so I recommend it, and I do it myself, but I don’t count on it much. Regarding gold and silver, as I said, I had to think of some way to protect my savings from inflatory events and impending currency crisis, since I’m saving up for a house; it’s not a universal problem. If you don’t have savings, you don’t have anything to protect.
Any thoughts on 1kg coins since they supposedly shouldn’t be taxable?
With gold it start with less than kg, maybe less than 100 grams, I think.
I don’t understand what either of you are saying. In the EU, silver bullion is subject to VAT, and gold bullion is not. It’s not dependent on mass. There are workarounds and hacks, though. For instance, if you’re buying second-hand silver, it’s not subject to VAT.
Afaik down to few grams if you’re referring to bullion size.
Is that kind of silver coins even available in Europe? I only heard about such stuff in the US (they call it “junk silver”, as the coins are used and rough, and not shiny like the recently minted ones).
Yes, it is.
You don’t have to get physical silver if you don’t want to get taxed. You can buy it off-site, with bullionvault or some similar company, and when it blows up, and the financial system settles down, sell it and buy either gold or real estate.
Yes that could make sense if they completely rely on physical.
They deal with full physical coverage and there are daily audits. Božo did a thorough check on them and I am convinced that they are reliable. Of course, I would never rely on them completely, but they are awesome for getting silver in the EU.
And what about buying gold? Are there reliable traders that we can work with here in Croatia? Is it safe if they keep your stuff instead of shipping it to you? At this time I’m just interested to not lose value of funds I have.
Gold is easy; there’s no VAT on gold bullion in the EU, and you can basically order it directly from the mint and get minimal overhead on the spot price: https://www.muenzeoesterreich.at/
If you don’t trust the insured courier or if you want to establish a relationship with a local dealer, https://plemenit.hr/ is good. The prices vary; they are as cheap as the Austrian mint for some items, and have significant markup on others, so it pays to check the prices before buying. But if you deal with the local guy you have someone to sell your gold to if you choose to. BullionVault is excellent if you want to park your money in gold but keep it liquid, without paying a penalty for dealing with the physical metal. BullionVault is at the same time more and less secure than having physical metal. It’s less secure if something happens globally that breaks the communications and infrastructure; then you lose everything. It’s more secure if something nasty happens locally, and you lose everything physical you have with you, but you retain access to the metal stored off-site. Basically, if Croatia goes to shit and you need to move abroad in a hurry, and you can’t carry gold bullion across the border for some reason (I can imagine a few, like communism or fascism), you’ll be very happy if you have an off-site stash of metal you can access from anywhere. In a pinch, simply liquidate it and work with cash. Of course, I already talked about the advantages of the physical metal.
Essentially, since there are different possible SHTF scenarios, you need to vary the mitigation strategies.
Thank you.
It’s highly likely that Croatia goes down the gutter economically and then some totalitarian regime kicks in as Croatia “smartly” sold all its gold reserves in 2000s. All The Hell would break loose. :
http://www.poslovni.hr/hrvatska/otkriveno-kako-su-prodane-hrvatske-zlatne-rezerve-296277
At the lowest price point of all times. I always say Croats are retards and this should be cited as evidence. And the greatest irony is, all their retarded moves are always phrased in sophisticated jargon, to show how smart and educated they are. Everybody and their secretary have some university degree, and they are all fucking idiots.
Croatia maintains itself by taking increasingly bigger loans that are preconditioned by total servitude to America, which then artificially increases their credit rating so that they can go deeper in debt and ruin themselves. The entire economy is ruined by the state which has its fingers in everything, most of the business people just gave up and went abroad, and the remainder of the country has average IQ of 94 or something, which means a significant portion of the population is clinically retarded, and the pool of really smart people is seriously depleted. A country with those trends has no future.
Do you know if UK leaving EU will make this scenario worse than it is now regarding VAT and perhaps some other things?
I don’t expect it to, but since laws are made by politicians pulling them out of their arse and the voting machine rubber-stamping them, who knows how the laws regarding bullion might change once it becomes important. However, I can tell you one thing: whatever happens, it will be preferable to what’s already happening to paper currency. Just observe how much value it lost compared to the metals in the last year.
They are facilitator of actual legal ownership of fractions of metal bars. Meaning, they
park your cash on their account, and gold/silver/platinum in the vault,
and allow people to trade between each other. So both sides of the transaction are fully funded
in cash and metal, before the trade takes place. There is no credit or leverage involved
whatsoever. This is a big contrast to ETFs, which are just tracking the price of gold for the purpose of gambling on the price movements, and there is no physical metal ownership anywhere to be seen in the whole thing.
You’ve been buying silver although it means paying VAT on a top of the base price if you’re buying it here in Europe?! I guess that you’re then expecting to spike even more than price of gold when shit hits the fan?
Btw, what does it mean when big players like DB buy gold, silver, etc. Do they get a hold on that physically or just a paper certificate of their deposit being held somewhere else?! If everything stayed the same, Muricans still keep Germany’s gold reserves in Fort Knox although Germans asked them to get them back. Muricans promised they will get it back to them in few years but until then … 😎👌🏻
Now I appreciate idea of Auric Goldfinger when he tried to contaminate Fort Knox gold deposits by planting dirty bomb and rendering them useless for some 57 or 58 years. 🤓
Actually, I found a workaround, which I already shared in one of the previous articles; the https://www.bullionvault.com/
You don’t pay the VAT on silver until you actually want it delivered to you physically, but since I treat it as a speculative asset, I see no need for that, at that point I’ll just sell it and buy gold, and then have *that* delivered.
And yes, regardless of the VAT, I expect that thing to grow so much it won’t matter. A factor of 100 would not be unexpected. Essentially, I expect silver to reach current gold prices, and Gold will be so expensive it will be out of everybody’s reach. It’s only logical; they would have to cover extreme monetary emissions with the existing supply of gold, which is only possible if the price of gold goes up to 10000 USD/oz, as Rickards anticipates. I think Sinclair anticipates it will go even higher, but I’m not sure it’s possible outside of hyperinflatory framework. 10K/oz is possible within the soft-landing paradigm of transferring the international monetary system from fiat to 40% coverage in metal. The rest will of course be the mortgages and other securities, which is perfectly good and necessary. All of this is possible only if America gives up its plan to start a nuclear war, which is far from certain. I think there are many forces in action. The Rotschilds and other banking elites understand that America is on the way down and they want to disentangle the monetary system from the dollar. This is one force. The Americans, on the other hand, don’t really want to give up their power, but they understand it’s no longer their choice. The Pentagon and the CIA want to use the military while they still have it, in order to shape the future world in such a way that America rises on top again. The Russians and the Chinese know everything and they are doing whatever they can to avoid this scenario, but there’s only so much they can do to keep things peaceful. EU is on the verge of breakdown, and there are obviously forces at work that either want to destroy the EU altogether, while others are trying to fix it. That’s something the conspiracy theorists don’t get: there is no one singular cabal on top, pulling the strings. There are many powerful players, with often opposing ideas, working in all sorts of directions, and the results are not really something they can control. Things backfire, the planners miscalculate, other players interfere with them, someone gets too carried away with drugs and sex and becomes useless/gets arrested, someone dies before he could finish some plan and an idiot son inherits him. Life gets in the way of plans. That’s the case both for the poor and the rich.
When it comes to Deutsche Bank … I would say that they’ve been in a deep shit for some years now so it’s kind of chronic. Do you know what’s the due date when shit hits the fan when it comes to Deutsche Banks’s owning of toxic derivative assets?
Their manic buying of silver lately means they will not slam hard into the ground but they’ll touch it light as a feather as they have parachute in the form of precious metal deposits?
When it comes to soft landing … it means there would be no hyperinflation and EUR would be worth what it was today?
As for Rotschilds, Rockefeller and other elite (I’m not sure if Soros comes with that bunch?) … I thought they would be on American ship as I guess they’re backing America financially and holding them in their pocket actually?
Final thought … we get to softlanding scenario only if some unexpected event like eruption of super volcano in Yellowstone happens or something more likely like fast and sudden outbreak of second American civil war distracts them from starting a nuclear war?
Honestly, I don’t know any details. It’s extremely complicated due to intentional obfuscation of their accounting, so you’d basically need several experts going through it all to see what it actually means, because they intentionally wrap, re-wrap and mis-label assets that have no value since 2008 at their “nominal” value, which basically means you have billions in obscure “financial products” and you’d have to do forensics on each such “product” to see whether there’s anything real there. It’s like a fridge in a morgue labelled as a school classroom, basically. The additional problem is that the bad assets seem to be diluted with good ones to create the appearance of normal average value, something like mixing rotten meat and roadkill with 30% good beef and selling it all as hamburger meat. Everybody involved should be brought out to some meadow and summarily shot. I have too much actual work to do to poke my nose too deeply into this but I listened to experts giving their take on it, and it’s basically a nightmare, especially since DB is interconnected with every other bank in the world so deeply, they have basically two options, let it fail and have a huge portion of all paper assets in the world evaporate uncontrolledly and create a panic-selloff that might bring down literally everything, or bite through shit and simply restructure the entire concept of paper money.
Yes, but only if I’m right and silver appreciates exponentially. Silver at current or even linearly increased prices won’t do anything.
That’s the trillion dollar question. There are many ways this could unravel, and one way is for the precious metals to appreciate significantly, 10x for gold and 100x for silver, and thus create coverage for the extant paper money, while other assets continue to vary independently, basically restricting inflation to the precious metals market while keeping the purchasing power intact in all other regards. This would have the side-effect of making everybody who owns bullion extremely rich, which is preferable to making all but the 10% of the population financially destroyed. It’s an either-or choice for the central banks; either they fix the problem of missing currency coverage by appreciating the precious metals to the point where coverage is sufficient, or have the greatest hyperinflatory event of all times, a global one with no firm foreign currency to escape to, which would also appreciate metals greatly but with the side-effect of destroying the civilization in the process. I think they are going for the option 1. Whether that would work in real life, remains to be seen, but all the indicators point to that direction.
I think they are letting America sink, nothing can be done to save it at this point. That’s been going on since Basel III. The point where gold was re-classified as level 1 security was basically the game over sign for America, the point where the international banking elites decided to de-dollarize the international monetary system.
I don’t know. My brain feels like mashed potatoes from all the chaos, violence, hatred and madness when I look in that direction, and that’s in addition to the “normal” level of pain I’m feeling from everything else. They feel like a hornet’s nest on LSD.
How is it possible for America to sink even if global economy gets de-dollarized since they have a hold on largest gold deposits in the world judging by top list of countries (and some other financial entities) with greatest gold reserves?
https://www.relbanks.com/rankings/world-gold-reserves
If they sink, others would sink even more then! What am I missing here?
In simplified terms, the dollar-based monetary and financial system functions like the reverse Carnot cycle. It creates favorable financial conditions in America at the expense of aggravating financial conditions everywhere else, for instance they can export their inflation and the rest of the world has to pay for it, or they can introduce financial regulations under false pretenses (fighting terrorism and money laundering) with the actual purpose of aggravating the business environment for non-American businesses. The main lever that makes this possible is “if you don’t comply, we’ll cut you away from our financial system”, which, if your currency is based on the dollar, means you get reduced to the level of Iran and DPRK. That’s why they can pull off all kinds of shit like unilaterally imposed sanctions, that would doom any other country. However, if the financial system is de-dollarized and is backed on metal and mortgages as it should be in normal conditions, America suddenly finds itself in deep shit, since it can no longer blackmail anyone, and since its economy is critically dependent on this reverse Carnot cycle of cooling their own environment at the expense of increasing entropy everywhere else, they have a cascade system failure in the short term.
And re: their gold, it’s a good joke. I think they sold most of it trying to artificially keep the price of gold down for decades. They recently bought some, but let’s put it this way, their gold reserves weren’t sufficient backing for their monetary mass in the 70s when Nixon removed the gold standard, and in the meantime they had a serious money printing binge, increasing the volume of money in circulation by tens of trillions.
BTW one of the things I’m counting on is the collapse of the paper-gold market, because the amount of paper gold exceeds the amount of metal by a factor of 300, if Jim Sinclair has the numbers right. This will happen because the market changed in the last year or so: before, most of the demand for gold was speculatory, where people bought and sold for differences and they had no wish to own the actual metal, so the markets simply inflated the amount of paper gold in circulation to increase their profits. Now, however, as the central and other banks de-dollarize, they actually require the physical gold, if not delivered, then at least audited, and this will call the gold markets’ bluff, and when it turns out that the spot price of metals was based on the false assumption that the amount of paper in circulation is a realistic representation of the metal in the vaults, the spot price will be corrected to represent the actual reality, and holders of unbacked paper will be wiped out. Essentially, if prices are based on the ratio of supply and demand, demand grows and supply suddenly turns out to be smaller by a factor of 300 than estimated, you tell me what happens to the prices. That’s the shock event I’m expecting and that’s why I’m buying metal like a crazy person.
I’m not sure if I get it right, but currently paper-gold price and physical gold price are having 1:1 ratio, right? So, when collapse comes both will go down and then you can buy a dip with really good discount? And once exchanges trading paper-gold decide not to trade it any more physical gold price goes to the Moon?!
Right, spot price doesn’t differentiate between paper and metal.
Actually, I was talking about the situation when paper gold bubble bursts, and you get spot price that’s basically higher by the factor of 100 because the apparent quantity of material on the market is reduced by two orders of magnitude. Your logic is flawed, I don’t see any combination of circumstances where gold would get cheaper, it will get exponentially higher and price itself completely out of reach of anyone except the central banks.
The only scenario where gold could go down is if the central banks decide to use something entirely different for currency backing, but I just don’t see that happening, considering the evidence (them storing gold and silver in extreme quantities).
I got confused by your mention of collapse as collapse in the market of anything for me means prices plummeting wildly to zero. 🙂
If everything else fails, I would propose then putting Ferengis along with their rules of acquisition in charge followed by latinumization of global economy. Can’t imagine them being less just and honest than Americans. 🙂
I would say that most of this current financial mess was caused exactly by the Ferengi attitude towards the finances, like, “let’s keep all the latinum for ourselves and give everybody else some paper they can use as money”. 🙂