There is a serious increase in earthquakes at Campi Flegrei supervolcano site near Naples, Italy. Essentially, it’s an earthquake swarm indicating a rise of magma, which is already shallow enough.

From what I can tell, this one doesn’t need much to go critical, and it’s hard to tell what magnitude of a disaster is imminent, because those things happen on a scale, it’s not just “nothing happens” and “everything explodes”. However, since there’s a city of 6 million people there, even a small eruption would cause mass panic and ashfall would endanger a significant portion of the population. A moderate eruption happening there would be a huge disaster, merely because the area is so densely populated. However, if this thing really blows, there’s no need for warnings or evacuations because the safe area will begin somewhere outside Europe.

Campi Flegrei is a supervolcano, like Toba or Yellowstone. If that one blows up, I’m close enough that I’ll likely end up under a meter of ash. That’s why I’m not worrying about it much, because there’s nothing I can do about it. I am, however, posting this notification, because it suddenly became a thing, and I don’t think all those volcanoes are just acting up by accident or at random. There must be a common causal factor, either something geological like that magnetic pole shift that seems to be going on, or gravity causing tidal forces in the Earth’s molten interior (either planetary conjunction or something else), or some kind of a neutrino flux from the Sun increasing radioactive decay and thus increasing the convective movements in the molten interior. Too many things are acting up, and those that are closest to being critical already might go over the limit.

As expected, the politicians and their regime “scientists” lied again, claiming the activity so far was tectonic in origin, while they knew for at least ten days that there’s water temperature rise and volcanic gasses detected around the resurgent dome island within the Santorini caldera.

How can you tell that the politicians and scientists are lying? Their lips are moving. The fucking bastards are only interested in “not creating panic”, unless they want to create panic, then they’ll create it around every non-issue at hand.

That’s why I have a radiation sensor at home, because I just can’t trust those bastards. They will either claim there’s radiation when there’s none, in order to keep everybody locked down, or they will remain silent about radiation when it’s present in order to hide something. The only way to be able to tell is to have a reliable sensor under your own control. But to return to the issue at hand, Santorini. I suspected it was volcanic activity from the start, because the seismic explanation was not consistent with the position and character of the earthquake swarm, which was centered in the volcanic area, and looked as if magma on the move is breaking through rock. So, what now remains to be seen is not whether there will be an eruption, but how big, and how destructive.

Historically speaking, it can be a small one that just fizzles out after a few weeks, or it can be a big one, like Krakatoa, that blows up the island sky high and floods the Mediterranean with tsunamis, also covering the surrounding area with ashfall. So, let me just model it.

When Krakatoa erupted, it was initially a perfectly common Plinian eruption: a column of gray smoke, very bad for the locals but nothing that much out of the ordinary, and this lasted for I don’t recall how long, days or weeks, until the magma chamber emptied. However, that’s when it all went south, because the underwater part of the magma chamber got eroded and the almost empty chamber got flooded with sea water. This all instantly turned into steam and the entire island exploded. My hunch tells me that something very similar happened at Santorini when it created the bronze age cataclysm that ended the Minoan civilization. Basically, there’s initially an eruption, and everything looks like a common local calamity until sea water breaks into the underwater magma chamber, which is when all hell breaks loose. So, those are the basic parameters of the situation. There’s going to be a volcanic eruption, and it’s going to make earthquakes, gray column of volcanic ash, and make lives miserable for the people in the vicinity. Then it’s either going do die down and sleep for the next few centuries, or, if we’re really unlucky, sea water is going to break into the fire pit and make a big boom.

My recommendation is to keep an eye on it. Even if it’s just a normal Plinian eruption, it’s going to disrupt air traffic in the neighboring countries, which is something to be aware of if you’re traveling in the region. Also, the volcanic ash might disrupt the electrical grid in the region, so power outages are to be expected in areas with abundant ashfall. Having air filtration devices at home, and particle filtration masks, is probably a good idea, because volcanic ash is essentially cement that turns into concrete in one’s lungs. Not fun. Also, it blinds you if it gets into your eyes. This means avoiding going out while it’s in the air, except if you’re very close, and you need to get the hell out. How do we know staying at home and waiting it out is a bad idea in areas immediately afflicted by a Plinean eruption? Because we found people in Pompei and Herculaneum entombed in volcanic ash. So, the advice for Santorini and the nearby islands would be to evacuate immediately, without delay, because they won’t be able to evacuate you once it starts properly, and whatever the ultimate size of the eruption, it will be bad locally. As for everybody else in the region, watch the direction of the wind, and watch for the direction of possible tsunamis. You need to be ready to react in multiple ways, depending on what ends up happening. Plan evacuation routes in case of tsunami or volcanic ashfall in advance. Also have sufficient food, water and cash for two weeks. Be aware that electricity might go out regionally, and that air traffic might be grounded across Europe.

I didn’t mention earthquakes, because I don’t know the extent to which they may be a problem. They are definitely going to be a problem in the region, and the tensions might propagate across tectonic plates, creating tremors farther away. I don’t know where, or how big, but they are definitely another thing to be aware of.