America and Israel attacked Iran again, although it would be more accurate to say that Israel attacked Iran using America, again, because they weren’t happy with how it went the last time; basically, both Trump and Iran were happy to conclude the previous war as soon as possible, with token damage inflicted. So, it is my interpretation that this time, Israel convinced Trump that Iran will fold and disintegrate immediately if they kill Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. What they, of course, knew, is that the opposite will happen – Iran will feel honour-bound to escalate the war to the point where neither party will be willing or able to just proclaim victory and finish it.
So, what are the goals now? For America, the goal is some kind of a regime collapse in Iran, or disintegration of Iran as a state. Since this is extremely unlikely to the point of being impossible, this means America doesn’t have an exit strategy, at all. They will try attacking until they are left without ammunition. Inevitably, they will suffer some extreme loss, such as an aircraft carrier being sunk or irretrievably damaged, and then they will be forced to use nuclear weapons to finish it.
For Iran, the goal is equally unclear. Ideally, they would want Israel and America to be permanently and fatally damaged, to the point of finally fucking off and leaving them alone. Since they think this is unrealistic, they are trying to survive long enough for their enemies’ corpses to float down the river of time. This means they don’t benefit from a direct confrontation, but now they are being forced into it, and there is no obvious way out. I mean, there is – they could always “salt” Israel, make it permanently and completely uninhabitable using dirty bombs, but then nuclear weapons would be used against Iran as well, and they also probably have some kind of a religious interdiction against that. But we do need to have in mind that this is technically an option for them, and Israel exists only because Iran isn’t fatally threatened. If push comes to shove and someone uses a nuke against them, I’m pretty sure they will “salt” Israel, and then all hell will break loose, everywhere.
So far, Iran’s retaliation has more-less paralysed oil and gas supply through the Strait of Hormuz, and this, together with the rest of the damage to the Emirates and everything else there, will cause serious issues to the global economy, which will persist even if the situation were to normalise immediately, which it won’t. The price of oil is going up, and America will now have to try to tear it down. If they fail, both themselves and their allies will find themselves in an immediate economic crisis, while Russia will get an advantage; China won’t be greatly affected because they are plugged into Russian supply. This is damaging the West primarily. The liquefied gas supply from Qatar has also been stopped, and it would take half a year for that to be restarted in earnest. This means Europe is going to either restart their Russian purchases, which is unlikely because they made enemies out of Russia, which is unlikely to just let this go at this point, or they are going to have a serious energy crisis.
I am expecting global supply lines to be compromised for all sorts of reasons soon enough, which will limit availability of things, putting pressure on local sources, which will result in prices going up. Production of artificial fertilisers might be further compromised, with availability and price of food becoming an issue.
This, of course, assumes a gradual and linear escalation of things not much further than they currently are. However, if something really big happens, all bets are off. Big powers are already itching to use nuclear weapons because they are out of conventional options, and with some big escalatory event, the temptation might become too much.
So, what are my recommendations? I think it’s too late for prepping. The crisis is already upon us; gold and silver started their exponential takeoff, so they are probably too expensive to buy at this point. The time to prepare by putting money there was years ago. Spiritual preparations are another matter, which is why my new book exists, I’d say.









