I was thinking about the current rise of gold and silver prices and trying to figure out an apparent cause, when I looked at a 2 year graph and stumbled upon this interesting thing:
There seems to be a 6 month cycle of sudden rises and subsequent slow drops, like teeth on a saw blade, and the “blade” has a 20° incline, approximately. This means that the current events have very little to do with the pattern, as tempting it may be for one to grasp at them, looking for explanations. I don’t have an explanation for the 6 months cycle, but if I had to guess, it might have something to do with financial cycles I’m not aware of.
I would guess 6-month cycle is related to standard economy cycles of the largest gold producers whose economies are tied to gold such as Australia or Canada, as gold price is correlated to AUD and CAD. I haven’t studied gold as much as you, but I’m quite familiar with EUR/HRK 6-month cycles which I assume work in the same way; Euro price will be lowest in June or July due to influx of Euro due to travel season, and highest in the winter due to imports. In any case, it seems you’re not the first to notice gold 6-month cycle.
BTW, try TradingView for graphs, especially if you want to draw on them, goldprice.org graphs are kind of shitty. 🙂
I tried it, and it might be better for day-traders, but goldprice is granular enough while not overwhelming.
There is another possible explanation. The whole PM market is rigged to some extent, and cyclicality you noticed is something that has to do with methods and regular repeating timeframes under which they intervene.
I don’t know, it might be a taxation cycle, or a credit cycle, or something similar that creates the cycles of overreaction/buying followed by relief/selloff.
It is, I read an article from a guy who was explaining gold “cycles” and was predicting current spike to reach 1700$ per ounce about a month ago.
I’ll try to find that article again, I kept only an image from the site … which I can not upload, says I need to be logged in … which I am.