My analysis is based on the following assumptions:

– Israel uses the USA to protect itself, however this has limits and is most effective if Israel is in an actual and acute danger. The limits of this were shown when Netanyahu was trying to convince the Americans that Iran is “this close” to having atomic weapons, and everybody was “naah, not convinced, but nice try Bibi, have a nice day now”.

– In case America disappeared from the world scene (for instance, due to financial collapse that would make it unable to project military power for decades) Israel would find itself in immediate danger of being destroyed by the neighbouring Arab countries and Iran.

– Israel’s approach to this problem includes efforts to divide Iran from the Arab countries, and Arab countries among themselves, in order to prevent the situation where all their enemies present a united front. Also, keeping the world in perpetual dependence of the American financial system makes the situation where any oil-producing country risks American sanctions a very good weapon of deterrence.

– Recently, however, the entire fiat currency system has been showing signs that usually indicate imminent collapse, due to American abuse of the system to sanction rival powers under every silly excuse. Also, the fact that America has been exporting its own inflation and financing their prosperity by exporting misery to the rest of the world has not been unnoticed, and the BRICS countries are very close to completely leaving the dollar-based financial system and migrating to something of their own design.

– Furthermore, China and Russia managed to broker peace in Yemen and peace between Iran and Saudi Arabia, mostly because Saudi Arabia has been pressured, blackmailed and abused by America one too many times and decided to seek refuge in the BRICS system, along with Iran, and they decided that they both have more issues with America than with each other. This is a very dangerous thing for Israel.

– Israel is having a problem with their own younger generations, who don’t understand the precarious position their country is in.

– Netanyahu, the prime minister of Israel, is accused of corruption and if he leaves office, he is likely to go straight to jail. He is therefore highly motivated, for personal reasons, to cook up a serious war that would make it possible for him to avoid unpleasant personal outcomes. It just happens that the international situation of Israel is as dire as his own, and their high political, intelligence and military circles must be aware of this, and willing to cooperate with him in order to cook up a situation that will pre-empt the natural and highly probable outcome for Israel in case no aggressive action is taken.

– America needs a precedent where nuclear weapons are used in war, but they don’t want to do it first; they just want a green light for their own use, either in response or according to a precedent. So far, Russia proved resistant to being goaded into first use, which is seen by the Americans as a nuisance and an aggravation.

So, what does Israel want? They want America to destroy the enemy states that surround them, most importantly Iran, because everything else is either already degraded, or is merely a gas station masquerading as a country (talking about Saudi Arabia and the Emirates here) without any industrial capacity. Also, they want all of their potential enemies degraded to the point of not being able to threaten Israel. They are not threatened by goat herders with AK47s.

The most straightforward way to achieve those goals is to wait for Iran to organize one of those inevitable attacks they are always planning, via their sock-puppets Hamas and Hezbollah. This attack must be allowed to succeed, at least to the point where it creates a legitimate threat, but not to the point where the actual existence of the state is at risk. Israel will then be seen as justified in taking revenge upon the perpetrators, but as this revenge becomes severe enough, Iran will act to protect its assets in the region, and Israel will declare war upon it. America will become involved, of course, but will try to no get into an open war with Iran; they just want to protect Israel from unmanageable consequences. As situation in Israel gets worse, they will nuke Iran, and possibly also the Hezbollah central in Lebanon. America will use its international influence to present this as legitimate self-defence, and in order for this to look credible, it would be helpful if Iran sunk an American aircraft carrier, hopefully the new one that’s been plagued with issues and is a failure anyway. Once the precedent of using nuclear weapons “for defensive purposes” has been established, further nuclear escalation will ensue.

I can’t quantitatively assess probability of this course of action at this moment, but I believe it is not less than 30% or more than 70%. This means there’s a good chance for a more moderate outcome, but still a quite high likelihood of things getting really bad really quickly. My personal feeling says this is very serious and not business as usual.

Probability of oil prices going up is almost 100%.

Probability of a refugee crisis in Europe is over 90%.

Probability of nuclear weapons being used in the following year is over 60%.

Probability of a great economic collapse of the West in the following year is 50%, almost 100% in 5 years.

Probability of the West losing the ability to control the price of gold is very similar to the probability of the great economic collapse of the West.

Probability of a great supply-side collapse in Europe in the following year is over 50%.

My recommendations remain unchanged from before, because the specific events might be unexpected, but the entire situation was predictable.