Fog of war

Some generals consider only unilateral action, whereas war consists of a continuous interaction of opposites … no strategy ever survives the first engagement with the enemy.

— Carl von Clausewitz

I like Von Clausewitz and his elegant formulations of complex realities, for instance, how a well made plan isn’t likely to fail just because the “fog of war” happens to obscure your vision and you see only chaos, gossip and misinformation. You have to trust that you made a good soufflé, put it in the oven and wait for it to rise. Changing the recipe, checking before time and second-guessing yourself are of no use.

That’s how I see the current situation. I trust that I had read the situation well, that I made all the right moves that were possible for me in the given circumstances, and there’s really no point in bouncing off walls like a ping-pong ball. The situation where you wait for the outcome, and the reality apparently contradicts your assessment and actions is not only not new to me, but I saw it in a movie “The Big Short”, about the 2008 collapse of the real-estate mortgage market and the guy who saw it coming, bet everything on the collapse, and the market kept rising, at which point he thought, “what if the entire market is so inherently broken and controlled, that they can do this indefinitely, or at least long enough for me to run out of money?”

The answer is, of course, that there is only so much you can do. The soufflé is in the oven, and it’s either going to rise, or it’s not. There’s not a damn thing you can do about it at that point, as Benjamin Sisko’s father would say.

3 thoughts on “Fog of war

    • Well, I’m not really “doing” things, as much as I’m being showered by raw sewage and drowning in it. I’m not sure why that is, and the most elegant explanation is that there’s a huge difference in energy potential between me and the surroundings, and there doesn’t seem to be anything isolating me from it, or if there is it’s not doing a great job.
      I am permanently cleaning up everything that comes my way, that’s true, but personally, I don’t think it’s a good use of my time, energy and abilities, and if someone up there is intentionally doing this to me as part of some strategy, it’s a shit strategy, because it doesn’t solve anything at the level of causes and only marginally deals with effects.

      But that’s not what I was referring to; I was mostly thinking about the incredible chaos in politics and economy, and my inability to keep following it on a day-to-day basis, because I get overwhelmed by this insanity and it’s not telling me anything useful, and the fact that those assholes exist and I can’t kill them depresses me profoundly. 🙂

      • the fact that those assholes exist and I can’t kill them depresses me profoundly. 🙂

        No need for a smiley here, I’m with you on this one.

        Unless you mean killing with a smile, but that’s fine too. 🙂

Leave a Reply