Category Archives: society

Assessment

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There was a relatively strong earthquake in Campi Flegrei last night, initially assessed at 4.4 MMS, later revised to 4.2. Everything above 2 there is significant, as it indicates magma movements and possible ruptures. 4.2 is really serious, and adds serious weight to the Bayesian probability of explosive eruption in the near future. Whether the eruption will be phreatic or supervolcanic, it is impossible to say. A phreatic eruption is what happened at Krakatoa, when magma and sea water came into contact within the enclosed space of the half-emptied magma chamber. It is what a pressure cooker would do if the pressure inside exceeded the cohesive forces within the containment vessel. It means a big boom that cooks the people of the local village in superheated steam. That place needed to be evacuated weeks ago. However, other than boiling a few thousands of people alive, the phreatic eruption poses no danger to the wider area. A supervolcanic eruption, VEI 8, however, would end most of Europe. So, the danger of natural events regionally remains high.

As for the political and military events, Trump is performing a circus where America, as a party in conflict that attacked Russia and wanted to destroy it as a country and surround it with enemies and do a regime change in every country that believes in two genders, is now roleplaying as a peace maker of some sorts, as if they’re a school teacher forcing some kids to make up or else. The Russians will politely tell him to piss off, to which he’ll do the typical Trump thing and threaten them with a big stick, forgetting that the Russians have already destroyed more than half of US and European military in Ukraine, and that American “mercenaries” have been killing Russians in Kursk, Russia, for months. This has all the potential of ending badly, because the Russians have already told Putin not to even think about any kind of “truce” or “ceasefire”. I see people behaving as this war is about to end, but on the contrary, I think it’s nearing the most explosive phase, where one bad miscalculation by America will result in instant massive retaliation. I am treating this as “all hell is about to break loose” until proven otherwise.

If you ask why is France so pissed at Russia, it’s because the entire West had a plan of blocking Russia, and intending on compensating for the raw materials they were getting from Russia by turning to Africa, and the Russians understood the plan and completely destroyed it by making deals with African countries that resulted in France and other former colonial powers being unceremoniously evicted and their access to near-free resources ended. As a result, France’s access to low-cost uranium for their power plants and military has been compromised and they are strategically fucked.

Trump, on the other hand, is acting as if America is the big boy in charge, but this is all a bluff. America is bankrupt, their military is defunct and depleted, and other than the decrepit nuclear weapons that are way past their expiration date, they have nothing except the printing press for money, which is currently backed by nothing but brute force. Essentially, the entire West is a starving parasite trying to latch itself onto resources to prolong its doomed existence, and in absence of the usual victims, the vampires are now trying to suck off each other, and it’s going to be a nasty sight.

So yeah, far from it being over; we haven’t actually seen anything but overture yet.

Childish governments

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Campi Flegrei supervolcano is still acting up, and for multiple days already there are reports of elevated CO2 levels in people’s homes at the volcanic site; basically, people are reporting dizziness and nausea at the Pozzuoli village. The government, however, is sweeping the whole thing under the rug and basically telling people that nothing is going on, but do install CO2 meters because we wouldn’t want you to suffocate.

This reminds me of the covid situation, where the governments initially under-reacted and said nothing’s going on, everything is fully contained, even if this obviously wasn’t true, and when it became obvious that some serious shit is going on, they over-reacted to the point of breaking the civilization. Basically, first they didn’t want to face the crisis and be responsible for saying that it’s real, and later nobody wanted to be responsible for ending it and saying that it needs to be handled rationally and not hysterically. Basically, they act in binary modes, where there’s either no problem whatsoever, or every life matters so much that if we can save it, it’s worth breaking the civilization and potentially killing hundreds of millions and reducing the standard of life for billions in decades to come. It’s worse than manic-depressive even; it’s like putting female school teachers in charge.

The covid is not the first instance of such foolish under/overreaction; there was the case of the Icelandic volcano, the Eyjafjallajokull, where they completely grounded all air traffic in Europe because of negligible risk of trace amounts of volcanic ash in the air to the jet engines. Abundance of caution, they call it. No, abundance of caution would be if any actual planes were damaged by the ash, and then you try to establish safe levels of ash particles in the air, monitor the condition and ground air traffic only where it’s actually necessary. Not ground everything until everything is perfectly safe, because absolutely any amount of risk is unacceptable. Well tough shit, bitches, because risk is part of life and there’s always an amount that has to be deemed acceptable or you’ll end up failing to live it at all.

With the Campi Flegrei and Santorini volcanoes currently acting up, the obvious rational measure would be to evacuate the afflicted areas completely, but the politicians are cowards who fear saying the “v” word (volcano) or “e” word (eruption), because they don’t want to be responsible for either panic, or frustration of people who had to evacuate if it turns out to be a false alarm. However, an adult response would be to tell people to suck it up – sure, it can turn out to be nothing, but even a small event will cause large local casualties because people for some reason like to live on volcanoes. You can’t assume it’s going to be a big one, because the probabilities and historic record are against it, and if it is the big one you can’t do anything about it that wouldn’t be almost as harmful as the eruption itself. You can, however, clear the Pozzuoli village and the Santorini island, and make tsunami preparations and drills on the projected impact areas in Greece. That would be the reasonable level of reaction, but no, the governments alternate between “nothing’s going to happen, everything is fine” and “the sky is falling, let’s make everything ten times worse now”.

Not good

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The global astral feels like a lunatic asylum; there’s a palimpsest of all kinds of issues and feedback loops, for instance the state of the global astral makes all kinds of people crazy/evil/violent more than usual, and when they act on it they make the global astral worse, and so on. I think the Internet made everything worse, and the social networks magnified the problem by an order of magnitude, because everybody tends to get synced up with the same bullshit. It’s like having Dropbox on five computers, and when a file is corrupted on one, it propagates across all devices.

Additionally, the news sources are all corrupted by either financial inputs from ideologically interested parties, intelligence services, and educational system which feeds neomarxist activists into guess what – places where they feel they can “change the world”, such as NGOs, news and politics. After a few decades of feedback loops of this kind, the public sphere has been completely contaminated by neomarxist ideologies.

Science has also been corrupted by a combination of ideologically motivated financial feedback loops, big corporations that treat science as a paid machine for product PR, leftist ideologues who treat science as some kind of a Church that provides official dogma rather than a method of inquiry, and so on. Also, after enough feedback cycles, everything from measurements to conclusions has been corrupted, and at this point it should all be thrown away and started anew, because none of it is trustworthy anymore.

The level of degradation across multiple dimensions of the system is so severe, that I can’t imagine it being fixed. This is a total civilizational breakdown. People forgot why the world they live in works, and thus undermined its foundations. After sufficient iterations, we now have a situation that’s basically on a free fall trajectory. People like Trump who are trying to fix it are in fact only exacerbating the problem, by destroying all kinds of layers of deception and lies that were introduced by other groups in attempt to hold the thing together.

 

Reasons

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One could rightfully ask why the hell am I buying almost 6000 € of photographic equipment, on top of 2000 € of stuff I’ve already bought recently, if I expect serious disasters that will end the world as we know it.

One could ask with equal right why I’m mowing my lawn, or brushing my teeth, or servicing the car. It all assumes the kind of continuity I don’t, in fact, believe in. However, I don’t know the timing, which means I have to behave as if the things are going to outlive me, and on the other hand be ready to leave today if God calls. This means that I function in a way that is both detached, and involved. I’m performing all kinds of duties on a daily basis, and yet I’m ready to leave every single second.

The reason why I ordered the equipment is actually detached from any expectation to use it; I merely decided to pay respect to my photographic art and skill. It is more of a sacrificial offering than anything else, because in this world one needs to support things that he sees as valuable, because what you don’t support dies of neglect by default. So, it’s a matter of philosophical consistency, rather than some investment in the future or what not. No; rather, it’s a respect to what is and was. Biljana got new stuff for the same reason. It is important to pay respect to that which is good and valuable, the same way it’s important to keep uprooting the weeds.

Warning

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There has been an increase of seismic and volcanic activity around the world, including recent precursors that usually indicate strong earthquakes; magnitude of 8 on the momentum magnitude tensor scale in the Mediterranean basin is realistic within days. Prepare accordingly.

Also, the earthquake swarm near the Santorini volcano is increasing in magnitude, and something appears to be imminent.

There is a correlation between this increased seismicity and volcanism and the current solar maximum, but the correlation might not necessarily mean causation – for instance, both might have the common cause in the major planetary conjunction that’s going on, meaning that the same tidal force is squeezing the Sun, causing increasing activity, and the Earth, causing increasing tidal forces in the magma, resulting in increasing seismic and volcanic activity. There might, however, be a different explanation, where the planetary conjunction causes increased activity in the Sun, and some type of neutrino is increasingly produced, that causes some minor increase in the radioactive decay, which actually causes the interior of the Earth to remain molten, and even a minor increase can cause major events on the human scale of things. In any case, the whole thing is poorly explored.

In any case, I would avoid travel and have supplies sufficient for two weeks of autonomy in the entire mediterranean basin, just as a precaution. The recommended minimum of 3 days of food and water is probably sufficient if you’re not really close to the areas most likely to be afflicted – Greece, Turkey, Italy, and so on. I would treat this as a serious enough threat to act on it. Also, it’s not a distant threat, since electromagnetic precursors of strong earthquakes, usually indicating a big one within 96 hours, were detected 2-3 days ago.