I’ve been reading the Western comments on the recent events. It’s not an easy reading, to put it mildly; it’s like watching someone cut himself with a knife, wallow in mud, bugger himself with a thorny stick and scream “Putin is Hitler, he is evil!”, only it’s 90% of the “western civilisation”. You hope they’re under the influence of some bad drug, but you fear they’re not.
Russia formally recognized Donbass “republics” and put them under Russia’s defensive “umbrella”. Predictably, the West introduced the sanctions they would have introduced anyways, so it’s a net zero loss for Russia. However, I think now would be a great time for the Ukrainian gas pipeline to be closed due to safety concerns. You know, questions about poor maintenance, war region, fascist “government” in power, that kind of a thing. Safety first.
However, since Ukraine is not a problem, but more akin to a disease-infested corpse posing as a country, the real enemy needs to be persuaded to fuck off by the only argument they understand: military force. It would be a great time for Syria to re-assert government control over the entirety of its territory, especially the parts where America is maintaining its illegal presence in order to harbour terrorists and steal oil. And if an American aircraft carrier comes to their aid and in turn ends up being sunk, that would be too bad.
In the mean time, I am making preparations of the kind you would expect if a war was imminent; I even bought a very good radiation dosimeter, in case this gets nasty and the exact nature of “nasty” isn’t reported in the news (or there is no news).
People have been adopting leftist attitudes and allowing the leftists to assume control of governments and meta-governmental institutions for decades in the West, probably guided by the sentiment that the Soviet block collapsed, the cold war is over, communism is no longer a political threat, so what could go wrong, especially since the communists changed their appearance and started fighting for either the environment or women’s rights or gay rights or veganism or what not, instead of workers’ rights, so they stopped looking like the stereotypical communists.
I’ll tell you what can go wrong.
Communism is not just a political threat. It’s an ideological poison. It feeds off of narcissism that makes people think they are changing the world for the better, while they are just sabotaging a system that works, until it crashes, because there are too many artificially imposed obstacles to overcome. Introduce environmental laws that make companies change their processes, and say they will adapt. Ban or restrict certain products, and say the marketplace will adapt. Introduce artificial stimuli that helps defective products like the wind power turbines, and hinders superior products such as natural gas turbines and nuclear power plants, thus making something inherently defective into a dominant factor, and driving something inherently stable and efficient into extinction. Then introduce covid restrictions and lockdowns, and trade wars and sanctions to your main trade partners.
This world can now easily feed 8 billions of people, while it could barely feed more than a billion for most of its history. It could barely feed 3 billions in the 1970s. You know what’s the reason behind the difference? It’s the economy. Not science, not technology, not democracy and human rights, but economy. When the economy grows to a certain size, you create certain types of jobs that couldn’t otherwise exist. For instance, if you have a village of a hundred or so families, you can only have a few primary jobs – farmers, fishermen, a local merchant perhaps, and a blacksmith. Possibly a priest. You just don’t have enough interest for anything else, so no other business can have enough demand to stay profitable. Also, there’s not enough free time or energy anyone can devote to anything beyond survival, so even literacy is uncommon. However, if you grow the economy enough, like in the medieval Italy, you get people who build and maintain roads, people who maintain the rule of law, merchants and tradesmen of all kinds, and even artists and scientists, when there’s a sufficiently large wealthy ruling class that can afford to buy trinkets and keep a Leonardo or Michelangelo on hire, giving them enough time to work on unproductive things with no immediate benefit for survival. Extend this more, and you start developing precise mechanics, steam technology, then electricity and so on, and eventually you end up with everyone having a smartphone in their pocked, connected to a global information network, even if they are stupid enough to think the Earth is flat and use the device to argue this nonsense online.
The larger the economy, the larger percentage of jobs that deal with niches such as laptop repair, entertainment, or, in my case, making it possible for businesses to navigate various totalitarian restrictions imposed by the states upon the banking system in order to prevent anyone from being able to conduct business if some socialist busybody put their business type on some “high risk” list, and they don’t know how to navigate hundreds of forms in order to satisfy the anal needs of risk departments. There’s absolutely no way this could be a viable business model in anything other than a global dystopia, but it is because here we are.
So, if something breaks in an economy of this size, with so many jobs and business models that depend on exactly this level of intricacy and specialisation in order to be viable, and the environment changes enough so that they would have to re-qualify in order to do something else, you are basically playing a game of finding a critical threshold – if you mess up enough things, you no longer have a small percentage of people who need to adapt to the changing landscape; you have cascade failure, where you lose entire industrial branches, and thousands of businesses that satisfied various specialised needs on the market that no longer exist.
So, what happens when you mess things up enough so that the business can either raise the prices in order to survive, or just outright die? They will raise the prices. Then people with low income will no longer be able to survive, and the state will have to either print money or raise taxes in order to finance subventions. These taxes will put additional pressure on the productive parts of society which will then again raise the prices to keep themselves afloat, and with every iteration of this cycle some of them will price themselves out of the market, and an increasing percentage will switch to grey or black economy – basically, they will continue doing business, but will no longer pay taxes, or register with the state in any way, which will keep the economy running but force the state to either accept the permanently reduced tax income, or crack down on the grey/black economy and thus make survival of the population harder, and increase criminality of the entire economy, because they will introduce evolutionary pressure that favours the absolutely criminal and unscrupulous types. So, with several iterations of this you end up with the kind of dysfunction we had in the collapse of Yugoslavia or the Soviet Union, or in some shithole like Somalia.
At this point, the economy is no longer large enough to support anything sophisticated – no car industry, no airplane industry, no spaceflight, no merchant fleet, no microelectronics, no software industry, just piracy and armed robbery, smuggling, black market and subsistence farming. Such economy, extended globally, couldn’t support more than a billion people, which means that at least seven billion people would die. I say “at least” because this would create such a disastrous environment that the seven billion people doomed to die would first destroy and eat that one billion farmers who would otherwise have a chance, because the environment would initially favour the unscrupulous predatory types, who would be the last to survive, but who are also the least qualified to survive on their own once they destroy everybody else because they are inherently unproductive, so they would eventually die out.
That’s the future I see us progressing towards with every government regulation, with every restriction and lockdown, and when they say it’s all justified if it saves even one life, or reduces the CO2 output by one bit, I think to myself: “you damn fools, you will kill billions by trying to save thousands”. Economy is usually quite adaptive and reacts well to small changes and detriments, but when you break it enough, when you find that threshold of cascade collapse, there is no going back.
There’s all that talk about inflation, but what we’re seeing is not inflation, it’s contraction of the entire economy and the higher prices are the result of the reduced efficiency of the entire system, and my analysis says we are seeing the initial stages of the cascade collapse.
America and the UK are quite hysterically trying to start a war with Russia, and not just any kind of war, but an indirect one where the Ukrainians will die, and they will sell weapons. I was thinking about reasons for that, and they seem to be multiple and layered.
The first is that a war would help their economies, which are beyond the brink of collapse, and are artificially made to look like they are functioning due to enormous amounts of money printing. Basically, the only companies that are actually functioning there are Amazon, Apple, Google, Netflix, Microsoft, Tesla and similar tech giants. Amazon is making good money due to covid restrictions, because people are ordering things online, but this is at the expense of brick and mortar stores, and I would say that it is producing a net loss for the economy in general. Apple is profiting from Intel and AMD being stuck with inefficient x86 technology, and from their own investment in ARM instruction set SOC. Google is an advertisement-powered censorship engine, basically working on directing society into questionable directions and financing it by getting people to buy stuff. Netflix is a leftist propaganda platform that tries to mask their actual product as entertainment. Microsoft is selling mostly their hosting services that compete with Amazon AWS, and Tesla is transitioning from selling mostly bullshit to selling mostly cars, although with half a steering wheel (because they apparently don’t have winding mountain roads in America) and no gear shifter, because the car “knows better” whether you want to go forward or back at a parking lot. I couldn’t make this shit up. In any case, their stock market consists of those few big names, that sell mostly entertainment and ads, and an army of the walking dead. The entire thing is starting to unravel, and America desperately needs a distraction that will then be blamed for all the problems, like covid was released/exploited to wind down the overheated economy gradually and reduce the intensity of the inevitable crash.
Also, America wants to prevent Europe from becoming their competition by forming useful bilateral economic ties with China and Russia, and keep it in a position of a vassal entity that will be dependent on buying overpriced American garbage, such as the “freedom gas” and iPhones. Having the EU not use the available Nord Stream pipeline with Russia, convincing EU to “have the free market lower the gas prices” and “not sign long term gas supply contracts with Russia to keep Russia on its toes” had the result of keeping Europe starved for energy during winter, and increasing the gas prices due to market speculation and artificially restricted supply. Also, if the Ukrainian pipeline “just happened” to stop working due to war with Russia, that would be a real shame because then the EU would have no choice but to buy “freedom gas”. Of course, the Ukrainians would freeze and starve in that case, but they are seen as more trouble than they are worth anyway; the country itself was sucked dry already and both EU and America would have to actually start to invest resources in it to keep it viable, and will serve nicely as cannon fodder in a nice little war that will both hamper Russia’s economic development, kill Russians at both sides of the front line, and line pockets of American and UK companies with money.
This wonderful plan is not really working because Russia is somehow too stupid to fall into this trap despite all the wonderful things it has to gain from it, such as millions of impoverished dependent people to suck its resources dry, neglected and devastated infrastructure that would have to be rebuilt, and population whose significant portion is indoctrinated to hate them. Instead, the stupid Russians, who failed to get the hint that they are supposed to be invading Ukraine, are turning to China to sign economic, political and military deals, and made a joint statement which can be summed up to a joint Russian-Chinese middle finger to the collective West – “screw you, we are carving our own path together and leaving you behind, because we’re done with your shit”.
The funniest thing is that America and the UK recently demonstrated complete inability to think strategically, by screwing France over with that AUKUS submarine deal with Australia, and thought they could just assume complete NATO unity over Russia a month later; France decided it’s payback time, so Macron went to Russia, and made a joint statement with Putin which basically completely backs Russian position regarding Ukraine – it can’t join NATO because it has a state policy of “returning” Crimea by military means and tries to get NATO to be their little bitch and fight their war for them, so France basically said “no submarine deal, no war with Russia, because we’re done being abused and exploited by America and their dickless lap dog”. I wonder how the CIA-controlled Western media are going to spin this, but it might be insane enough to be entertaining. I somehow doubt it; it’s usually just depressing.
Most other EU countries aren’t that interested in fighting Russia for the sake of the incredibly corrupt and nasty Ukrainians, either, despite American pressure, so all the talk about NATO unity basically serves to hide the fact that there isn’t any. Most Eastern European countries joined NATO because they saw it as a way of “making progress” by going in a generally westward direction, at the point where Russia didn’t look like any kind of a strategic enemy anymore, so the idea of a new cold war (that actually looks like it’s about to turn hot) is very far from what they think they subscribed to.
Furthermore, Russia not only refused to play a role in the American script, but turned the table and issued a “non-ultimatum” which basically tells the Americans to remove their shit from the Russian borders and back to the pre-1997 positions, or things will take a non-diplomatic turn, which is so far from America’s ability to comprehend that they kept talking about Ukraine as if anybody in Russia gives a damn. The Russians actually made it quite clear that it’s America they have a problem with, not their vassal states and “alliances”, and now that the Americans rejected this “non-ultimatum”, it remains to be seen what Russia will do. One thing is certain: France will sit this one out, and judging by the wide-eyed terror displayed by most of NATO countries, America and the UK will be on their own against Russia and China, and absolutely nobody will be there to help them, while France will make lucrative military and economic deals with the Russia-China alliance, soon to be joined by other major world countries.
From what I can see, America is scheming to cook up a scenario where China and Russia will wage pointless, fratricidal wars against their renegade provinces, both getting weaker in the process, and unable to help each other against the common enemy.
Let’s see how they respond.