Let me write down some of my thoughts on what’s going on in the war.

Ukraine has almost no army left. This conjecture is based on the increasing reports that everything but the untrained cannon fodder there are the NATO people playing dress-up, the way Russians dressed up as “little green men” in Crimea or Croatian army dressed up as the HVO (Herzegovina Croat paramilitary troops) when they went across the border in 1995 to crush the Serbs. Also, Ukraine has basically no original Ukrainian equipment left, and the NATO stuff is all centrally controlled over satellites and manned by trained NATO personnel. Basically, NATO troops are the glue binding the broken up Ukrainian military, and as time goes on there is increasingly more glue and less Ukraine.

The level of conflict is such that the NATO countries basically ran out of spare weaponry, and since their industries are incapable of producing quantities required for a real war (it’s all tuned for peacetime servicing and replacement of existing small quantities of stuff, and also military industry doesn’t work that well without oil, gas and electricity) they are now in a position where they are forced to deplete their own defensive capabilities if they want to continue with this war, and America/UK is not allowing any alternative to be heard.

There was some fuss here in Croatia about whether we should train Ukrainians here or not. I think this is only a fig leaf; Ukraine has no men to be trained. What is likely going on is that America is forcing subservient countries, like Croatia, to dress up their quota of troops as Ukrainans and send them to the Ukrainian front, weapons and all. When the extent of this is revealed, all hell will break loose, and there must already be a plan for NATO to openly enter the war at that point, so that the foreign troops can switch to their own uniforms, with puppet parliaments voting for their respective satrapies’ “voluntary” participation in the war. There are reports that the Russians already hear huge amount of radio chatter in Ukraine in foreign languages, so they have a pretty good idea what’s going on. I heard analyses stating that 40-80% of people fighting on the Ukrainian side at the moment are foreign NATO troops, depending on the region. I can’t confirm those numbers, but considering the reports of 5000 Poles being hit in the Ukrainian barracks, I would not be surprised.

The Russians still didn’t introduce the new recruits to the front line, but it is expected to happen when the soil in Ukraine freezes; autumn mud doesn’t favour movements of heavy equipment across vast swathes of terrain.

The Americans expect the Russians to go in for real, and seem to be making preparations that have to work with the assumption that the Russians will crush everything in their path and intend to actually keep everything they liberate this time, because the Bucha-like incidents where the Russians go in, the locals see them as liberators and help them, the Russians withdraw and the Ukrainian “special forces” then go in and kill all the “collaborators”, are currently seen as completely unacceptable by the Russian people. The Ukrops did the killing, but the Russian people see those who gave the order to withdraw as responsible. This shit will not be happening again. Next time Russia goes in, it stays forever. The corollary of this is that the Russians won’t enter the places where the population is not Russian – they don’t care to have a significant percentage of Ukrops on territory under their control, but they can also not allow the Ukrops to continue functioning in the un-liberated parts of Ukraine, which explains the infrastructure bombardment. I would assume that the Americans expect the Russians to take the entire Eastern Ukraine, and the Kiev regime to either collapse entirely, or be replaced by the Russians as something that governs the Central and Western Ukraine, but is not Russia proper. This will be the point where America could either accept defeat, or double down and go into the Western Ukraine with open NATO occupation (ahem, “brotherly assistance”) and the NATO-Russia front line will be established somewhere along the lines of the Dniepr river. Also, I would expect that the Americans will enter Moldova through Romania, and try to wipe out the Russian army detachment in Transnistria, and then proceed to Odessa to prevent the Russians from taking it, or, at least, prevent the Russians from joining with Transnistria. I would also expect the Americans to try and open up a second front somewhere around Belarus, forcing the Russians to commit significant forces there, and having to choose between abandoning their Belarusian ally and splitting their forces, thus relieving pressure from the Eastern front. This, however, will only make it more likely for the Russians to decide that they need to take the entire Ukraine, purge it of fascists and Western influences, and park their tanks on the Polish border.

What I see as likely when the Russians go in, is that the Ukrainian supposed allies, meaning the Poles above all, will see this as an opportunity to re-take the parts of Ukraine that they see as their historical lands, by basically going in with their army to “help” Ukraine, and never leave. When this happens, the Romanians, Hungarians and what not will also go into the fray and try to re-take their historical lands, and this might spell the end of Moldova as a state, by the way. The Americans must see this, and I would expect that the purpose of their 101^st Airborne currently located in Romania might be not so much to stop the Russians (they are far too weak for this), but to constrain the territorial ambitions of their East European allies, or at least to remain in control of the process and be able to impose the desired political outcomes, because this could end up causing a very real intra-NATO territorial conflict, making NATO defunct.

In any case, I don’t see continued existence of Ukraine in any known form past this winter. However, so many things are in the works, and so many global systems are forced past their balance points, that we can expect cascade collapse of social, economic, political et al. systems, with unpredictable consequences, because we are dealing with chaos, and in chaotic systems predictions are a pastime of fools.

On Monday, NATO started a nuclear exercise in Europe. Russia did not formally respond.

However, today (Saturday) at least 10 Russian strategic bombers released a large number of cruise missiles, accompanied by launches of cruise missiles from sea-borne platforms. Those missiles hit targets in Ukraine.

The message, as I understand it, was that those missiles could as easily have continued their flight across the Western borders of Ukraine, and hit NATO bases in Europe. Had they been nuclear-tipped, all the NATO bases would have been destroyed in that single attack.

The underlined part of the “non-message” is, “fuck with us, and that’s what happens”.

…but American cock is blocking their vocal cords so they can’t say. 🙂

Nov 29th 1971 The Croatian spring broken, Croat leaders imprisoned.

Feb 21st 1974 The new constitution introduces new state structure that gives the constituent republics much more autonomy, including the right of self-determination. This formed the legal basis for the country’s dissolution in the 1990s.

May 4th, 1980 Tito dies. Country is headed by the Presidency of Yugoslavia, rotating the President on an annual basis between the republics.

May 1986 Slobodan Milošević heads the communist party of Serbia and initiates a nationalist course.

1989 Slobodan Milošević is elected president of Serbia. His Gazimestan speech is seen as an ominous cloud foretelling the grim future of Serbia introducing a centralized and oppressive rule, trying to cancel out the freedoms granted by the 1974 constitution.

Jan 1990 Yugoslav communist party congress; Serbia tries to outvote Slovenia and Croatia and “democratically” establish the new, centralized, Serb-dominated direction of the country. Slovenia walks out. When Serbia tries to proceed without them, Croatia walks out as well, followed by Macedonia and Bosnia-Herzegovina, leaving the Serbs to play with themselves. Communist party of Yugoslavia becomes defunct, and this initiates the process of dissolution of Yugoslavia.

Apr 8th 1990 First multi-party elections in Slovenia. The pro-independence coalition defeated the communist party, starting the transition to the market economy and a liberal political system. The government starts pursuing independence of Slovenia from Yugoslavia.

Apr 22-23rd 1990 First multi-party elections in Croatia. The nationalist party won and ousted the communist party from power.

Aug 17th 1990 The “log revolution” starts; the Croatian Serb minority starts a separatist rebellion, using logs to inhibit railroad and road traffic.

Oct 1990 The Croatian Serbs declare autonomy.

Dec 23rd 1990 The referendum on the independence of Slovenia was held; 88% voted for independence.

May 19th 1991 The referendum on the independence of Croatia was held; 83% turnout, 93% voted in favour of independence. The Croatian Serb uprising is increasing in severity.

Mar 31 1991 The “bloody Easter” at the Plitvice Lakes; the Croatian police tries to intervene against the Serb separatist uprising, the Yugoslav Army intervenes against the Croatian police, siding with the Serb rebels. In retrospective, this is seen as the start of the Serb uprising and the independence war in Croatia, with Croatia’s first combat fatality. The rebel Serb entity declares itself separate from Croatia and seeks unification with Serbia.

May 2nd 1991 Borovo Selo killings in Croatia; the Serb paramilitaries ambushed Croatian policemen, killing 12 and injuring 21. This is a shock to the Croats and the public anger rises against the Serbs, whose “uprisings” were before seen as a joke (where “balvan revolucija”, or “log revolution” was basically a funny meme). It becomes obvious to the Croats that the Serbs actually hate them and want to kill them and take their land; things get really serious, and Croatia prepares for war.

Jun 25th 1991 Croatia declares independence and the dissolution of association with Yugoslavia, but forced by the EU to introduce a three-month moratorium on the decision.

Jun 25th 1991 Appropriate legal acts are passed and Slovenia legally declares independence. This is the formal date of the dissolution of Yugoslavia. In the morning of the next day, Yugoslav army intervenes, but is faced with unified resistance by the Slovenian people and at Jul 7th the Brijuni agreement is made, and the Yugoslav army agrees to withdraw. Slovenia is free, but for Croatia the war is just starting.

Aug 25 1991 Battle for Vukovar begins in Croatia. Throughout Croatia, war rages; the Army barracks are under siege, and the Army attacks targets throughout Croatia.

Sep 8 1991 Republic of Macedonia has a referendum and proclaims independence.

Oct 1st 1991 Siege and bombardment of Dubrovnik. Oct 4th Bombing of Zagreb TV tower. Oct 5th Croatia declares general mobilization. Oct 7th bombing of presidential residence in Zagreb in attempted decapitation strike. The Serbs massacre Croats in various locations where they have the upper hand.

Nov 18 1991 Vukovar falls, the Serbs massacre the captured defenders. International recognition of Croatia begins after all international dreams of salvaging Yugoslavia as a country shatter.

Nov 23 1991 Vance plan, Geneva accords signed; ceasefire is agreed, freezing the occupied parts of Croatia under Serb separatist rule. Croatia has to agree to this in order to buy time to create an army. Having achieved what they could in Croatia, the Serbs turn their sights to Bosnia.

Mar 1st 1992 Bosnia’s Muslims and Croats vote for independence from Yugoslavia; Bosnian Serbs mainly boycott the referendum.

Mar 2rd 1992 Bosnia declares independence. “Yugoslavia” now consists of Serbia and Montenegro, but it controls the entire formerly-federal army, which is a big deal. The local Serbs including the Yugoslav Army perform complete encirclement and siege of Sarajevo. The Serbs quickly seize more than half of Bosnia. The Muslims are caught by surprise due to misguided and failed policies of Alija Izetbegović, and suffer the hardest initial losses. The Croats were prepared by the experience in Croatia and, for the most part, retain control over their part of the land.

Jan 1993 The Muslims back-stab their Croat allies, in a fight for territory; the Croats are seen as a softer target compared to the Serbs. Total mayhem and fratricidal slaughter ensues.

Apr 1993 The UN establishes protection zones.

Mar 1st 1994 The Muslim-Croat alliance is brokered by the USA.

Mar-Jul 1995 Bosnian Serbs under Radovan Karadžić cut off Žepa and Srebrenica areas and “purge” the local Muslims. The UN troops are of course useless. The Serbs seem to have the upper hand in Bosnia and the Western Muslim enclave around Bihać is about to fall. However, this is the point where the Croats decide to finally show what they’ve been doing since 1991, and enter the game.

May 1-3rd 1995 Operation “Flash”, Croatia quickly liberates one of three occupied regions. It becomes obvious that the times of Yugoslav (now basically Serbian) army’s military supremacy have ended and Croatia now has the ability to call the shots.

May 2-3 The rebel Serbs perform a rocket attack on Zagreb, using MLRS with cluster ammunition, killing and injuring civilians across the capital. This outrages and angers the Croats more, if that’s even possible.

Aug 4-7th 1995 Operation “Storm”, Croatia quickly liberates the second, central occupied region. The local Serbs evacuate en masse, fearing reprisals for their actions from 1991 onwards. It is now obvious that the operation “Flash” was not a fluke, but a new pattern. The Croatian army has total military supremacy in the region, and enters Bosnia, making quick work of the Serbs there. The Serbs are panicking, they are evacuating from Banja Luka, fearing the rapid Croatian advance. The Americans intervene to stop the Croatian advance just ahead of Banja Luka falling.

Nov-Dec 1995 The Dayton Agreement formally ends the war in Croatia and Bosnia.

1998 Trouble in Kosovo brewing; the Albanians are starting to kill the Serbian policemen. Yugoslav army intervenes and makes quick work of the Albanian separatists.

1999 Uprising in Kosovo is subdued by the Serbian army, and it looks like a decisive Serbian victory. Macedonia is destabilised by the influx of some 360000 Albanian refugees from Kosovo. However, at this point America decides this constitutes a breach of the general terms they imposed at Dayton, and decide to make an example of Serbia, quenching their desire for military conquest and solving problems with neighbours by means of war. NATO (but de facto America) bombs Yugoslavia into complete submission. The Serbs are forced to abandon Kosovo, and America establishes a military base there.

This is the point where Russia wakes up from its Yeltsin-era slumber and smells the coffee, perceiving that Yugoslavia fell apart, that America bombed it, and concludes that American bombing destroyed Yugoslavia, causing everybody in the region to facepalm every time they say it.