Electricity

There was a question asked once on one of the “prepping” sites: how much would a permanent electrical outage disrupt your life.

I answered that it would most likely be an unrecoverable, life-threatening disaster, to which the local “experts” laughed, saying how hard is it to heat your home and cook your meals on wood and coal like people used to? I concluded that they didn’t really think things through.

Let’s just go with the obvious – heat, light, cooking. If your apartment or a house isn’t designed around solid fuels – meaning wood and coal – you might not even have a chimney to get the smoke out. If you do, it’s most likely connected to the kitchen ventilation hood, and you would have to get a wood stove and rework your kitchen quite a bit to have it installed in place of the electrical appliances, and that would give you only a single-point heating source. Central heating, with circulation of hot water across the radiators, uses an electric pump, which means that if you have central heating on utility gas, it won’t work if there’s no electricity. This means your entire family would have to move their beds to the proximity of the wood stove in the kitchen. Also, since your home isn’t designed around it, and people don’t have experience with it, there would be a significant increase in numbers of carbon monoxide poisoning cases, because people wouldn’t know to ventilate the place properly, or know what is dangerous.

The second thing is, do you know how much coal/wood you need to get through the winter? Do you have it? Do you have a place to store it? Is it dry? Do you know where to buy it? Is there even enough on the market for everybody, and can you afford it?

Let’s just say that there is enough coal, but the distribution network doesn’t exist, and people absolutely don’t have adequate storage for the quantities required. Also, burning coal for domestic use in the cities would produce such degradation of air quality we haven’t seen for a century. As for wood, there’s absolutely not enough for everybody. The logistics absolutely aren’t there for the big cities.

As for the light, petroleum and gas powered lights do work, as do the candles. However, using open flame as a light source would increase the number of fires.

Everything you have in the refrigerator would go bad, and you would have to either prepare it for immediate consumption, or throw it out. The same would happen in the big refrigeration centres and shopping malls. Refrigeration is absolutely necessary for ensuring food supply of the kind we are used to, and we can’t just flip a switch and do it the 19th century way. There were 1.5 billion people in the world in the 19th century, and that’s a high estimate, and it also assumes a civilization that is optimized very precisely for that way of life. We are at 7.9 billion now. Returning to the 19th century means there are suddenly no resources for the 6.4 billion people, and it’s not that they would just die. No, they would rob and kill everybody first, and then die. Such a sudden drop in available resources would be an extinction-level event, not a “return to the good old times”.

Modern medicine works on electricity, so no modern medicine.

No refrigeration. Medications require refrigeration, so no medications.

Industry requires electricity, so no industry.

Every damn thing that works on gas and oil also has some part that requires electricity to run.

Every damn thing that used to be wind and water powered in the past is now powered by electricity; think windmills, or water mills. Can’t mill wheat into flower without rebuilding those from scratch. Bakeries used to work on coal and wood; not anymore. Can’t buy bread.

No Internet. No computers. No mobile networks. No radio, no TV. No communications. Can’t call the police, or ambulance, or the fire department. Beyond what you can see, and beyond a distance you can ride a bicycle to in reasonable time, communications are broken and you don’t know what’s going on.

No banks, no ATMs, no cash registers in the stores and no POS devices. No money, because the paper money would become worthless quickly and people would revert to barter, because they no longer have any experience with precious metals as money.

Lawlessness. Armed gangs roaming the streets, robbing houses and apartment blocks. Martial law, where the police and the military might actually be as dangerous as the gangs.

A permanent no-electricity situation isn’t a “oh, we’ll burn coal and wood like our grandparents” situation. It’s the extinction event. The greatest number of deaths in a nuclear war scenario isn’t due to the atomic bombs hitting you, or the radiation; it’s due to a disruption in transportation, refrigeration and so on. The bombs and radiation kill tens of millions. Lack of electricity and fuel kills billions.

That’s why I don’t have a backup plan for the complete lack of electricity; because it’s a doomsday scenario. It is not realistically survivable.

Halfway between having the cake and eating it

I sold 55.13% of my precious metals holdings today, and bought a nice two-storey penthouse apartment and a plot of land.

This move is contrary to what I would consider smart, because the precious metals valuations are below what they should be, and real estate is greatly overvalued. However, I am very happy with my decision, for the following reasons.

First, this is the first real estate property I ever bought; I’ve been renting so far. The problem is, the very nice place I had rented since 2009 to 2021 lulled me into a false sense of complacency; I had a very unproblematic situation there (other than a humidity/mold problem) until the earthquake that damaged the structure so hard, the flat roof became porous to water, and the owners couldn’t fix it while I was inside, and probably can’t fix it at all due to the nature of the damage, and when water intrusion became so bad it flooded the central heating boiler and we lost both hot water and heating during the winter, I had to move in the most inopportune moment, with huge rental prices and incredibly poor choice. Renting no longer looks like a great idea, especially on the eve of a great geopolitical disaster that’s developing as we speak. Also, there is a problem with real estate that’s even worse than price, and that’s availability, The choice is poor, and when a good one appeared on the market, together with a piece of land I could later use for whatever purpose, I decided to halve both my risk and my potential earnings from metal growth; having no place that I can reliably depend on in this situation looked like something that’s far too dangerous in comparison with the possible reward in the best case scenario; the risk/reward ratio was poor. I have nothing against risk, but having so much money in form of metal, and not having a place of my own, in a situation where renting no longer feels like a good solution, that was foolhardy.

Also, my original reason for buying precious metals was to save for real estate, because money on a bank account is always too tempting to spend on some “lesser goal” that invariably appears; someone always “needs” a new car, or something along those lines. Also, I don’t trust banks as far as I can throw them, and keeping money there feels inherently dangerous. As I had a very strong “hint from above” to buy gold bullion, that’s what I eventually did, after initially dismissing the “hint” to my detriment. The problem is that I started thinking about precious metals then, and decided that they are hugely undervalued and a price revision is somewhere in the future, making it a very tempting prospect to just hold on to the gold until this comes to fruition, and only then solve the real estate problem. However, this is not the whole story, as I tried to buy real estate at several points before, and it turned out that either the houses were poorly built or inadequate, or the sellers were unreliable in some way; in any case, by trying to find something good for several years, I learned how hard it is to find that “unicorn” place, and so when one appeared, and passed several of my tests, I decided to just go for it and split my holdings just about straight in the middle, between real estate and precious metals.

Buying land was a spur of the moment thing; it felt like something that makes my situation less limited and allowed me to explore options in the future, if need arises, and although it increased the cost by a quarter, it increased potential benefits by an order of magnitude, so I just went for it.

It is good that I could do this and not enter the worst of the crisis with no money; that would be even worse than entering it without a place of my own, from which I can’t be arbitrarily thrown out when the landlord feels shit hit the fan too hard and he wants his house back. I remind you that laws and contracts are worth very little in a societal breakdown scenario. However, you can’t eat real estate, and being completely without money because I bought real estate was the reason why I missed out on a few previously available, and marginally acceptable places; buying them would dry me out completely. This, on the other hand, feels financially comfortable.

This recent drop in gold price did hurt me somewhat, but it only reduced my profits from gold by a fifth or so; it reduced my profits from 12% to 10.5%. As I said, it hurt, but not to the point where it would really compromise anything. I would be lying if I said I didn’t expect gold to grow more, but all in all, if I just left the money on the bank account, I would probably have spent it already, and it would also generate no interest if I didn’t. This way, I had moderate earnings, the kind you expect from a solid stock market investment, not from something that supposedly just sits there and makes you no money.

The nice thing is, nobody is going to ask me why I didn’t just invest money in crypto, because those who did are still nurturing their very tender nether regions. πŸ™‚

 

Trust the government

…not:

That’s what it looks like when idiots try to pursue an ill-conceived ideological agenda and they aren’t even able to do simple logistics. And those are the people who would teach us moral virtue, brow-beat us for disobedience, and wage war with Russia and China.

The problem with these idiots is that they “trust their feelings” about “what is right” instead of doing the math, like, we want electric cars, let’s see if it’s doable. How long does the battery last, how frequently do you need to charge it and for how long, where do you need the charging stations and how many, how much electricity can you pull through the existing installations and is it enough for charging electric cars, what do you need to upgrade, and is there enough electricity in the grid to support this additional load?

The same idiots sanctioned Russian gas and oil for “moral reasons” (because waging a war against a Nazi puppet-state of your strategic enemy who is developing bio-weapons there, specifically designed to preferentially kill Russians and have “plausible deniability” about the source, -> oh they must have eaten bats, those crazy primitive Russians; waging war against them is incredibly immoral and everybody should do something to support the Nazi puppets, because that’s the right thing to do, because those who attack are always in the wrong and that’s why we all supported Saddam… oh wait), the Americans told them they’ll provide them with the “freedom gas”, it’s going to cost a bit more but that’s the price of freedom, and what did I say, I said there isn’t any American gas, it exists only in the PowerPoint presentations. Guess what happened, there actually isn’t any American gas, Europe is going to have a very cold winter and its industry is going to die, and even more importantly, its agriculture is going to die and then everybody is going to starve to death, and it’s all a part of someone’s plan because the goal is to kill you all because you’re bad for the environment.

Basically, the people who plan to kill us all because we are bad for the environment are the same people who are too stupid to install chargers for the electric cars because they just suck at planning and doing basic logistical math.

Yeah, but by all means, trust them with all your lives because they mean well and they know what’s right. It doesn’t matter that they are stupid and can’t organize a public toilet properly; what matters is that their hearts are in the right place. πŸ™‚

Update

I haven’t been writing much because of several reasons; first, it’s quite obvious that things are proceeding according to the patterns I explained before, and I have nothing new to add, for the most part. Second, I’m actually trying to avoid watching the news all day because it’s toxic; it keeps me at a heightened stress level and I can’t keep this up indefinitely, so I take breaks whenever it’s possible.

As I see things, the situation in Ukraine will soon reach a point where the entire Ukrainian state will completely collapse; its actual functioning army has held for so long because it was utilizing the static fortifications they built over the years in the occupied parts of Donbass, which made it very hard for the Russians to advance unless they were willing to either accept great casualties on their side, or use weapons of mass destruction against the enemy, and they decided against both. However, when those fortifications fall, and the Ukrainians lose the majority of the fighting force because all of their viable army is currently holding those positions, there’s nothing that can really stop Russia’s westward advance. When Kramatorsk falls, it’s game over for Ukraine.

In order to prevent the imminent collapse of Ukraine, America prodded Lithuania, which in this picture resembles that little snarky critter that protrudes from Jabba the Hutt’s slimy arsehole, to blockade Kaliningrad and provoke Russia into opening a new front there in order to protect their assets. The Russians are taking their sweet time formulating a response, which means they understand the situation perfectly, and are designing a response that will improve their strategic position.

The G7 made another fantastically stupid move by blocking Russia’s gold exports. The idea is to reduce Russia’s ability to liquidate their gold holdings when they need cash. What the G7 idiots don’t understand is that Russia doesn’t need liquidity; they are functioning at a large surplus for the last decade or something, and using this surplus to buy more gold, so access to an international credit line or ability to sell assets for cash don’t actually mean anything to them; if anything, they have a surplus of foreign currency already, and their foreign trade is increasingly migrating towards non-Western directions, and the clearing is performed in non-Western currencies. This means that the Russian state/central bank will be able to buy more gold at subsidised prices, because that’s where the surplus will go, and the gold producers will be unable to sell gold to G7 countries, and/or for G7 currencies. As a result, Russia will have even greater gold reserves, and introducing a gold-standard for the Ruble will start looking like a really good idea. Also, this will reduce the amount of physical gold available on the G7 markets, putting increasing strain on the paper market, and making it very tempting for someone with lots of resources to attempt a short squeeze against it. I would read this as “China” and “US bonds”. All kinds of shit will hit the fan if events start following this course, because flooding the market with US bonds and draining all the physical gold from the Western markets is absolutely the last thing America and Britain would want.

Crypto currencies are doing what is expected of balloons in a cactus field, but that’s expected by all but the most hardened cryptins (from “crypto” and “cretin”, if it’s not obvious enough). Psychologically, the collapse of all those unbacked “assets” and derivatives is necessary for re-establishing the economy of sound assets, which means that shares of companies that make money and pay dividends are worth more, and things that are actually more important for survival are worth more. Crazy, right? The problem is, once things start going that way, the G7 economies will start figuring out that “G” stands not for “great” but for “gowno”, pardon my Polish.

Also, the governments had a splendid idea of trying to avoid inflation by refusing to raise salaries. That’s an incredibly stupid idea because this will produce an instant public revolt when people who can’t afford food simply dispense with the entire political class, by hanging them all at the lamp posts, and, likely, at all those surveillance cameras they installed lately.

 

Misc issues

There are several issues I want to bring up.

Scott Ritter suddenly changed his narrative from “Ukraine is losing the war and no amount of help from the West can change that” to “Ukraine needs to hold on until the NATO trains their replacement army which is in the process right now, they just need to hold on until help arrives”. This honestly sounds like Hitler’s propaganda in 1945 – we need to hold on until the miracle weapons arrive and then we’ll revert all our losses and achieve final victory. Yeah right. Basically, I agree with Gonzalo Lira that the guy sounds as if someone gave him an offer he couldn’t refuse and he traded his reputation for mainstream acceptance. Someone from the CIA probably approached him and gave him a “are you with us or against us” offer. Basically, I would treat him as an outright CIA asset at this point.

As for the argument itself, it exists only within the Western disinformation thoughtspace; the idea that the purpose of Ukrainians is to keep dying, spending old Western weapons and laundering American freshly printed money in order to strategically weaken Russia is American idea and nobody with an independent thought in their head thinks that is a good plan, especially since the time-curve is that Russia is getting stronger and everybody else is about to have a crashing economy, mass starvation, fuel shortages and popular uprisings. Basically, it’s the Russians who have to keep the fire going and the West is going to end up in the post-Soviet 1990s. The most viable part of the Ukrainian army is being mopped up as we speak and there won’t be any of it left in the following weeks. After that, the Russians will deal with Kharkov and Odessa, probably offering them terms for surrender, because it would be either that or repeat Mariupol. What I actually expect to happen is an American intervention that would attempt to broaden the conflict significantly in order to complicate things for the Russians.

Another complication for the Russians is the fact that it might actually be immoral for them to perform tactical withdrawals from the territory they hold, because the Ukrops have shown a propensity for “cleaning up the traitors” at such areas, as shown in Bucha; basically, they execute all the civilians who in any way “collaborated with the enemy”.

Anything the Russians hold, they must hold perpetually in order to protect the populace from the Ukrainian fascists. This is not easily reconcilable with the requirement of having the least possible number of troops deployed. Also, they might soon have tens of thousands of prisoners of war, and those will be the real hardened Nazis like the ones from Mariupol, not the common soldiers whom they might interrogate and let go. It’s a serious logistical problem since they are unlikely to kill them outright, and they can’t really let them go either.

That insane thing about the American abortion law, and the instant pro-abortion protests everywhere looks very much like a psy-op, and a very weird one, because it looks as if some AI running simulations recommended introducing additional intra-societal conflict in order to keep the populace in a certain psychological state it deems desirable. The entire thing is very weird and looks very much as if someone were tweaking variables. Also, the story about the next virus out there, the monkey pox, looks actually counterproductive. I’m having a weirdness overload from some of the things I’m finding in Western press, and it goes further than just common war propaganda; it looks artificial, synthetic, like something that uses principles devised by human psychologists but turned into society-control widgets tweaked by computers. Basically, it looks like the smart humans created a complex AI system and filled it with data, the system is saying what needs to be tweaked, and then the orders are given to the moronic humans who work in the politics, NGOs and the press to create artificial issues or aggravate existing but unsolved ones. This might actually be very close to the root of the problem.

The financial system is in a state of flux preceding a major crash and is conforming to the predictions postulated by the “Dollar milkshake theory“. The cryptocurrencies showed that they are only an extension of the stock market’s high-volatility, high-risk asset pool and not a new financial system, they are as restrictive as the fiat currencies and have by all standards failed. The precious metals are behaving more-less according to expectations for the rising-dollar phase of the crash, and according to my feeling for these things, the last train for getting out of the financial bubble was the end of 2021; now it’s already late in the game because if you were in the stocks and crypto, you already suffered huge losses, and if you were in fiat currency, the metals are now more expensive but still a good idea to get in while they are still available in retail, which might not last long; also, in the later phases of the Dollar collapse when everybody attempts to get into gold, the prices will skyrocket in the Bitcoin-like manner, and availability will be severely curtailed, because the governments will suck up all the 400oz bars in attempts to shore up their currencies, which will make it hard for retail product manufacturers to make coins and smaller bars. If you have confidence in “cloud gold”, basically “gold in someone else’s safe”, you haven’t been paying attention to what’s been happening to those who held gold “in the cloud”. America and the UK will outright confiscate other countries’ gold, and countries will outright confiscate private citizens’ gold with some lame excuse.

So, the US Dollar will be the last of the Western currencies to go down the drain, but I would recommend against going into the Dollar to save yourself, despite the fact that it might look very profitable in the short term, because it might be hard/impossible to get out of it, and you’ll end up with lots of numbers on the screen, unless you’re incredibly lucky and play it exceedingly well, and ride the wave of the “Dollar milkshake” by first going from other fiat currencies to the Dollar, exploit the growth of Dollar, and then manage to get out of it and into physical assets while they are relatively undervalued. However, I think it might not introduce benefits compared to what you would obtain by going straight into physical assets immediately, but it does contain significant additional risks, such as timing the things wrongly and being unable to get out, or only being able to purchase gold at exorbitant prices and incurring huge losses. I stand by my old recommendation of keeping only as much fiat currency as you need for monthly liquidity, and putting everything else into precious metals, and staging it in both physical and “cloud” storage so that you retain the flexibility of remotely allocated gold/silver for liquidity purposes.