What not to do

I watched video about a prepping community that refurbishes former US Army ammo bunkers in South Dakota:

The first thing that crossed my mind was that this looked like exactly the kind of place the army would select for a Minuteman ICBM silo site, and in a few minutes of searching, here’s what I found:

Yes, there indeed is a huge ICBM field right across from that abandoned ammo depot. So, yeah, good job placing your “survival” bunkers right on the “X”, in the middle of a first-strike zone of death that’s going to be turned into a glass parking lot in case of a nuclear war.

Edit: this missile field seems to have been retired, but to quote Wikipedia, “Some 450 of the newer Minuteman III missiles are still on active duty at Malmstrom AFB, Montana, Minot AFB, North Dakota, and F. E. Warren AFB, Wyoming.” This is all basically “next door”, so my observation stands.

This made me continue this line of thinking: how to identify bad ideas when you’re trying to prepare for a disaster, and what makes sense.

There are several fundamental principles I try to adhere to:

  1. Prepare the way you normally live. This means you don’t buy “survival foods”, you buy the kind of foods you would normally eat, just keep an increased suply at home instead of doing the “just-in-time” thing. This also means you don’t have a separate “survival location” where you would bug out to in case of a disaster, because the likelihood of you being able to leave your primary residence in case of an acute emergency is exceedingly low, and your probability of success drops exponentially with the remoteness of your survival site. This means that your primary location must be equipped to serve as an emergency shelter, and if it’s not, you should move to a place that’s inherently safer. Essentially, don’t buy a shelter in the middle of nowhere if you don’t intend to actually live there, because chances are you won’t be able to get there in time; if there’s a nuclear war looming, do you really want to be on a long road trip, exposed? If there’s an emergency, understand that the authorities might restrict your movement, that there might be panic and chaos, and being out there in such a scenario actually increases your probability of robbery, injury or death.
  2. Use your imagination a bit and imagine several modes of disaster. Examples are nuclear war, civil/conventional war, riots, earthquake, volcano, flood, tsunami, plague and extreme weather (tornadoes, hurricanes etc.). Use common sense to model probabilities: are you in a flood zone, does your location have extreme weather, is there a history of seismicity or volcanism, is your country trying to piss off a nuclear superpower, what’s the population density and what happens in case of riots or a plague and so on. If your primary or hypothetical secondary location puts you right on the “X”, you have a problem. You need to approach this from a risk-reduction realistic perspective. Basically, don’t build a nuclear shelter in a first-strike zone of death, near the ICBM field.
  3. What’s your realistic endgame? You’re in the shelter, there’s a disaster you’re riding out, but what do you actually plan to achieve? Let’s say it’s a big disaster. Do you keep relatives and neighbours out in some “every man for himself” pattern, or do you try to build a wider community “for later”, because your probability of survival as an individual with lots of supplies, but alienating everybody else, works for as long as you don’t vitally need something you don’t have. However, if you’re spreading out your supplies across a wider group, they are not going to last long. It would be a very good idea to be surrounded by people who are all on the same page, and they all try to maintain some level of disaster preparedness, and who can then pool resources.
  4. If whatever you’re doing fails, what then?
  5. Never rely on mercenaries (or hired staff of any kind) in emergencies. They will either abandon you at the first sign of real trouble, or they will actually rob and murder you. This is a lesson people historically learned the hard way. Always ask the question “why would that person not just outright rob/kill/rape/murder me”, and if the answer is “because of the law”, you’re fucked. Also, never trust atheists with anything; if a person is not profoundly religious, they are inherently dangerous in a situation where there’s no state to enforce laws.
  6. A source is always preferable to a limited supply. This means having a source of water you can filter and use instead of having a water tank; having a power source (a hydroelectric, solar or wind generator) rather than relying on batteries or a limited tank of diesel for the generator; being able to grow food rather than relying on limited supplies. Living in some remote area with limited supplies inevitably creates a scenario where the supplies run out, and then what? Always plan ahead and avoid obvious dead ends.

No more START

The US has “unleashed a total hybrid war” against Russia and is putting the two nuclear nations on a path to direct confrontation, the Russian Foreign Ministry has said. It claims Washington’s demands for nuclear inspections in Russia are “cynical”, considering its “obvious” assistance in Ukrainian attacks against Russian strategic nuclear forces.

The allegations were part of the Ministry’s public comments on the status of the New START treaty, the last remaining US-Russian agreement on nuclear weapons reduction. According to US media, the Department of State notified the Congress last week that Russia was in “noncompliance” due to a refusal to facilitate inspections on its soil.

The Russian Foreign Ministry said that was not true, since the treaty allows suspension of inspection. Washington was the first to start barring Russian monitors from doing their job in the US, it alleged. The ministry said that “created obvious unilateral benefits” for the US and prompted a response in kind by Moscow.

The 2010 treaty was signed in a different environment and is based on the notion that the US and Russia are equal partners who seek to build trust and improve global security through disarmament, as reflected in its text, the ministry explained. But now that Washington has declared the “strategic defeat” of Russia as its goal and ramped up tensions in all aspects of bilateral relations, there can be no “business as usual” with the US, according to the statement.

“Until Washington revises its hostile stance regarding Russia and drops the policy of increasing the threats towards our national security,” Moscow will consider any proposed gestures of goodwill under the nuclear treaty “unjustified, untimely and uncalled for.” (source: RT)

If I am not wrong, this means there are no more nuclear disarmament agreements left between America and Russia; America unilaterally departed from ABM and INF years ago, and START was the only one left, but it was close to expiring in a few years anyway and the necessary negotiations on its renewal haven’t even started yet, so it was obviously only a matter of formality.

At this point, the superpowers are not only in a state of cold war, they are very close to the state of declared war.

 

Chinese baloon

The Chinese sent at least one (probably several) “meteorological baloons” over America:

This doesn’t look meteorological to me, by any stretch of the imagination; it has a large antenna array which probably serves the purpose of monitoring the frequencies that would get absorbed by the atmosphere before they reached orbit, and probably amplifies and relays the results to a spy satellite in the geosynchronous orbit above. Considering how long it took the Americans to shoot it down, we can consider the north-American airspace basically undefended from ICBMs.

Bakhmut

I recently read that the name of the city which the Russians call Artyomovsk, and the Ukrainians call Bakhmut, has the same etymological root as the word Baphomet – essentially, a corrupted version of Mohammad. The medieval Christians thought it’s a name of some demon from hell who brought forth a false religion to corrupt and deceive men, and the modern satanists adopted the name and seem to admire and worship this demon depicted like this:

For some reason, I find it incredibly funny that the Ukrainian Nazis, who dabble in all sorts of pagan and satanic nonsense, changed the name of the city to Baphomet, and are now performing massive human sacrifices there.

Preparations

Andrei Raevsky, also known as The Saker, recently announced that he’s shutting down his blog by the end of February. It is very unlikely that the cause is related to his health, since he didn’t want to transfer it to anyone else, and he also made sure nothing really points to him personally. Since he previously said that he’ll close the blog if the international situation deteriorates to the point of a hot war between United States and Russia, my guess is that the real reason is to be sought in this direction. He probably has reasons to believe that shit is about to hit the fan, and since he lives in America he doesn’t want to be an obvious target for American repression. Considering how he didn’t give that much thought to what will happen to the blog archive, one can conclude that he thinks we’ll probably have more pressing issues in this timeframe, such as, for instance, a nuclear war.

Speaking of which, I have no recommendations regarding ways to prepare at this point. If I were to articulate my position logically, I would say it’s too late in the game for any radical changes of strategy, and, personally, I feel I’m leaving this world soon, and not preparing to live on canned beans in some bunker.

But, just in case, let’s go through the basics.

UK, America, Russia and China are the prime targets for massive nuclear attacks. Anything within those countries is a possible target, especially if it’s close to a command center, a military base, installation or a factory. American military bases in Europe used for coordinating and staging attacks in Ukraine are even more dangerous, as they are the prime targets in the first wave of expected strikes. Anyone who lives in this “red zone” should either leave or start cramming for the entrance exam for heaven.

The “orange zone” is everything that is likely to be covered by immediate nuclear fallout, or be cut off from sources of food, electricity, heating, water and other utilities. This means large urban centers in Europe, America, Russia and China, that don’t even have to be directly hit in order to become death traps. Also, agricultural areas that are likely to be covered in radioactive fallout (and depend on modern agricultural measures) are not going to be usable for growing food any time soon, so they are for all intents and purposes not going to be inhabitable. People in the red zone are running out of time and need to prepare for leaving the world. People in the orange zone will have more time, but not so much that I would recommend wasting precious time. Bring your affairs in order quickly and prepare to leave this world, because that’s where this is going. Regardless, everybody should perform their duties to their families and other people throughout this entire mess. Pray, focus on God, and help each other throughout this.

The “yellow zone” is anywhere in the world that is not directly hit by nuclear weapons or significant fallout, and will keep having basic services available throughout and after the nuclear exchange. It means the ability to generate electricity, have sustainable sources of drinkable water, and are already capable of growing food without access to artificial fertilizers, pesticides and other modern agricultural devices. The yellow zone will be safe until people from the orange zone start migrating away from the zone of death and into places where there is food. At this point, they will overrun everyone in the yellow zone.

The “green zone” are the places that have guaranteed survival in the long-term. I don’t know if there is such a thing; probably people who still hunt with spears and traps somewhere in the deep wilderness, and live in ways that don’t make them a target from the orange-zone predators. If you’re in the green zone, you probably don’t know what Internet is.

Have in mind the erratic nature of war, and the fact that Gonzalo Lira basically saw that the West is going to hell and preventively escaped into Kharkov, Ukraine, in order to avoid the shit storm. He ended up under siege in a war zone, so that didn’t work out all that well, despite a very solid prediction of the problem. I’m saying that we don’t know what’s going to be hit in which order, and so trying to run away from trouble can actually land you in deeper trouble. The recommendation is to wait until you see the direction the tree is falling before you start running. The exceptions are certain places such as the UK, which have enormous targets on them, and are profoundly unsurvivable in the context of a nuclear war (and are barely survivable even now).

The standard preparations mean that you expect things to be whacked way out of normal, and you need battery lamps with lots of spare batteries, some sort of a radio to learn what’s going on when Internet goes out (you probably have it in your car), non-perishable food for the minimum of two weeks and several months if possible with some rationing, bottled water, bleach or other water purification substance, gas tank in the car constantly over 75% full, all your savings in form of gold and silver coins and bars, and enough local currency for immediate low-volume purchases (it’s likely to be worthless anyway in the long-term). Have a get-home backpack in the car in case you get stranded away from home and plan for the worst-case distance; you need to have water, food, clothes, swiss army knife, lighter, flashlight, smartphone and those stupid cloth masks that don’t do shit against covid, but which do work for basic air filtration in case of fallout. Have it in a dedicated backpack and put it in your car or with you whenever you’re going far enough from home that you would be have a long hike back.  Always have a sufficient amount of cash in your wallet; sufficient means enough to get you home, and to buy supplies along the way if possible; a hundred euros in 10/20 euro bills should do it. If you’re in red or orange zones, this means you. Such a precaution is useful even in peacetime, for instance having enough cash to have your car towed if it breaks down or you had an accident, and enough for taxi to get you home, and to buy food and a bottle of water along the way, if you’re a long way off. If a family member is separated from the family unit (in a nearby town or something), it is recommended that they have some gold and cash with them, because they might find themselves in a scenario where they have to bribe their way out. Don’t go overboard; a few small gold coins would probably suffice, no need to carry something that would make that person a target because they would act suspiciously. If you are on a vacation, consider what you would need to get yourself home in a scenario where you are stranded on some island, where the ferry is no longer working, and the roads are no longer passable. Also, consider a scenario where you would have to stay stranded for a long time – months, years, or the rest of your life. Don’t travel anywhere when there’s imminent danger of nuclear war or in its aftermath, because you need to expect all the long-distance traffic to be grounded. Never travel or be outdoors when there’s radioactive dust in the air. Never taste “black rain”, and wash it off you as soon as possible, and throw away all the clothes you were wearing. The “duck and cover” exercises are not stupid; the Americans in the 1950s knew their stuff, because if you’re in the fireball radius of a nuclear explosion, you’re dead and nothing can help you, but if you’re in the shockwave radius, which is immensely larger, the greatest danger you are facing comes from the broken glass that will form projectiles. The shockwave from the Chelyabinsk meteor explosion injured thousands of people, and it was way up there; that’s the most likely danger. Stay away from the windows, or other flimsy structures that might collapse on you, or form projectiles that will hurt you. Hiding under a desk or in a corner of a room, and covering your head with a piece of cloth, kneeling or sitting on the floor so you can’t fall or be thrown onto something hard and sharp, is a good idea. 99% of people in a nuclear blast zone are more likely to be injured by flying debris, or injured by infrared radiation if they are out in the open, than they are to be killed by radiation or immediately vaporized by the fireball. Don’t count on intentionally exposing yourself to the blast in order to put yourself out of your misery; chances are, you aren’t that lucky and you’ll just cause what you’re trying to prevent. Have in mind that there aren’t that many nukes in the post-START world, and each will be precious and aimed at the important strategic targets. If cities are to be targetted, it will be because they contain essential command/control or other military assets. You need to be exceedingly unlucky to even see a nuclear blast up close in a nuclear war, if you’re not in the heart of the red zone. The greatest danger will be the lack of electricity, lack of drinking water, lack of food refrigeration in big distribution centres which will cause collapse of the food supply, and poor sanitation and disease, combined with the collapse of health care and inability to find medications for chronic diseases and antibiotics to treat injuries. Radiation is dangerous, but it’s a secondary concern, unless you can actually see the “ashes” in the air and black rain. A hundred other things are more likely to kill you, but expect that the masses won’t know that and will panic, and this will be much more dangerous than fallout. If you’re in the fallout zone, hunker down in as deep concrete as possible for at least two weeks; then you can gradually extend exposure.

I don’t know how useful this will be, and I do hope that God has a less shitty way out for us than this, but it is what it is, and I’m telling you what I know.