I haven’t been writing anything here for several reasons. First, I wrote my opinion on the closed forum in Croatian language and simply never got around to translating the articles here. Second, I haven’t been feeling well, due to the enormous pressure of all this toxic garbage I’m ingesting and analysing; it’s not health food, by any means. Third, I didn’t have anything really new to say, because things are progressing at their rather slow pace and it’s not like I have anything dramatic to report every couple of days, like those attention whores online who try to keep the audience wound up with artificial drama in order to get money from ads and Patreon.
Also, I’m trying to figure out what’s going on myself, because it’s not like I have a very clear idea. The facts are hard to discern, and even then it’s hard to understand what they mean. But let me share some of my provisory conclusions.
One of the most fascinating things, if I’m interpreting the facts correctly, is that Russia managed to invert the “bear trap”. You see, the entire Ukraine thing was designed by America and the UK as a new Afghanistan or a Vietnam for Russia, an endless war where they would lose people and equipment, suffer sanctions that will create a black hole that will suck all of Russia’s resources and create impoverishment, domestic discontent, worldwide isolation and, eventually, a repeat of the 1990s collapse of Russian society, which the Americans see as some sort of a golden era that needs to be brought back. What actually happened is that Russia is doing this with their little finger, and they designed the entire thing so that it consumes as little of their manpower, equipment and intelligence capacity as possible while still winning the war, while consuming as much of the manpower, equipment and financial resources of their enemy (America and their vassals). From what I can see, their losses from the war are insignificant compared to their losses to the American covid bioweapon, they get to train their troops in an actual conflict instead of devising massive maneuvers and exercises that they do every now and then, they get to iron out all the flaws in their tactics, see which weapons actually work and which are expensive failures, their economy is getting healthier because the remaining foreign dependencies are removed (which would be very hard to do in normal circumstances because some imports are so much cheaper than designing the entire thing domestically that it wasn’t worth doing), their society is getting healthier because the people are finally understanding that the West actually hates them, and I mean “hates” as “wants to destroy them”, and “them” as literally them, the people, despite all the hypocritical talk about hating Putin. They hate Putin because he is the personification of Russian people, a personification of strong and independent Russia. They hate Putin because they want to enslave and kill the Russian people, and the formerly pro-western part of Russia is starting to get it. So, basically, Russia has cheap food, cheap energy, and is winning the war with their little pinky finger. At the same time the West is having a slow bankruptcy avalanche; their finances were shit for decades already, they don’t produce any actual goods, they destroyed their energy sector with all that carbon bullshit, they destroyed their capitalist economy with hyper-regulation, they imported huge numbers of worse-than-useless refugees from all kinds of shitholes because of their misguided ideology, and now they are adding the additional stress of increased military spending, combined with the circular firing squad maneuver of sanctioning their major provider of food and energy.
At this point, Russia is destroying the NATO equipment as fast as it is arriving in Ukraine. They are adhering to the doctrine of minimizing exposure to harm, while exerting maximum pressure on the enemy, to the point where the entire Ukrainian military that has been surrounded in Donbass is crumbling, and the Russians are already experiencing a shortage of men handling the prisoners who keep surrendering faster than they can properly process them, which I guess is a nice problem to have for a military.
America’s main problem at the moment is that they seem to be losing the Ukrainian military, and they are trying to prevent that by all means, because if that happens they will find it difficult to justify pumping all that money out of the West, pretending it’s directed at Ukraine, while it is actually directed at their offshore bank accounts, while the Ukrainian Nazis get a hefty “commission”. It’s all a giant money-extraction scheme that uses the American printing press while people still accept that shit for goods and services, because a day will soon come when it will dawn to a sufficient number of people that allowing Americans to buy up the world’s real estate and goods with fake money, backed only by the fear of American military power, is not in their best interest.
NATO has been sliding down a slippery slope of committing themselves to increasingly provocative and hostile actions against Russia, thinking that Russia is apparently afraid of going into open war against them so it’s all fine.
America and NATO are basically in a situation where they are accelerating their collapse through instruments the Russians managed to leverage against them, and the entire thing is like a black hole, or a meat grinder. The Russians are going at it slowly because taking Ukraine was never their goal; defeating the West is. They took pains avoiding the kinds of mistakes that could cost them, such as trying to show off by trading casualties for time. They don’t care if this war lasts as long as it can, if the dynamic remains as it is now, where they are turning the meat grinder slowly with their little finger, and the West keeps being dragged into it.
Sure, if the collective West were what it used to be, with a vibrant capitalist economy, the Russia would never be able to pull off such a stunt, but the West consists of hysterical women in places of power, of communists educated way beyond their intelligence, and of people who don’t actually know how to do anything useful in the real world, and actually look down their noses at anything that has anything to do with actual physical reality. In such a geopolitical layout, where Russia controls the things of the real world, and the West lives in la la land and tries to win real wars on Twitter, the image of the meat grinder which Russia turns and the West falls into is actually quite valid. If this gets any worse, they might actually smell the coffee and turn to China, which they see as the weaker opponent, probably because they think the entirety of the war will be waged on Taiwan, where China won’t be able to utilize its massive land forces. Also, the Russians look as if they’re just doing their thing and waiting for the Americans to get desperate and over-commit, at which point all hell will break loose.