Monthly Archives: October 2022

Scenarios

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I know most people will read my previous article and think they can see a realistic scenario for surviving without electricity. Let me see:

1. Going completely pre-industrial. Have a farm, grow livestock, staples and vegetables, use animal waste and compost as fertiliser. Use wind or water to power a mill. Manage a forest as a sustainable source of fuel for the winter. Great plan, it would work, until hungry, desperate, violent and armed people from the cities come and take your farm. If you resist they kill you, if you don’t resist they make you their slave, and since there’s lots of them, the farm suddenly can’t produce enough to sustain all of them. Best case scenario, they repeat the dark ages feudalism scenario and occupy several farms on a territory, and take 10% of produce from each. This is long-term sustainable, but it would take lots of trial and error until they get there. Let’s say you were very “lucky” and you get to live as a serf.

2. Going sustainable high-tech. Have a solar power plant on your farm, produce biodiesel for your tractor, grow animals, staples and vegetables. Great plan, and it would work, until something breaks down and there are no spare parts; also, everything from 1. applies and you are eventually found by an armed gang and either killed or enslaved.

3. Let’s say you create/live in a sustainable enclave, or you are seriously lucky and your community can control a power plant (hydroelectric or nuclear) that can work sustainably for decades. You also have functional agriculture and limited industry. Good for you. Now you’re the prime target for everybody else in the world who wants what you have. You defend it, and the armed conflict destroys the assets and now nobody has them; everybody dies. Or you don’t defend them and somebody else takes over, and you are either enslaved, killed or exiled.

4. You have an underground shelter stocked with food, have access to a filtered water source or huge tanks of water, have some sort of a power generator that can go for decades (let’s say it’s hydroelectric, powered by a subterranean water flow). Nobody knows you’re there, and you don’t know what’s outside. You possibly use your underground facility as a base for conducting raids on the surface, to replenish your supplies. Congratulation, you became a Morlock.

5. Join an armed gang that robs, kills and enslaves people. The problem is, you turn into a predatory beast and sacrifice virtue for survival. Not the best tradeoff to make, in my opinion.

6. Form an alliance with farmers, where you protect them with weapons and they feed you. Alternatively, the farmers form a wider alliance and feed a protective paramilitary force that’s known and trusted. Joining such a community is a good option, if they will take you, but the problem is that they will most likely shoot outsiders on sight.

7. You have an unsustainable, but substantial cache of supplies. You wait for things to improve. They don’t. Your supplies either run out, or attract robbers.

8. You belong to some native community that traditionally survives off the land in some rainforest, desert or wasteland, where trained traditional people can live off the land, but the resources are so shitty nobody else would find it worthwhile to fight over. The problem is, if you don’t live like this now, it won’t happen.

So, this is my problem with preparing for apocalyptic scenarios: when I apply game theory to them, they all either turn into dead ends, or shitty life that’s not worth living. All the prepping scenarios where you can do something constructive are those that assume a local, contained disaster where the rest of the world is fine and help will eventually come, or a disaster that degrades the civilisation, but everything more-less manages to limp along afterwards, and improves after a while.

Electricity

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There was a question asked once on one of the “prepping” sites: how much would a permanent electrical outage disrupt your life.

I answered that it would most likely be an unrecoverable, life-threatening disaster, to which the local “experts” laughed, saying how hard is it to heat your home and cook your meals on wood and coal like people used to? I concluded that they didn’t really think things through.

Let’s just go with the obvious – heat, light, cooking. If your apartment or a house isn’t designed around solid fuels – meaning wood and coal – you might not even have a chimney to get the smoke out. If you do, it’s most likely connected to the kitchen ventilation hood, and you would have to get a wood stove and rework your kitchen quite a bit to have it installed in place of the electrical appliances, and that would give you only a single-point heating source. Central heating, with circulation of hot water across the radiators, uses an electric pump, which means that if you have central heating on utility gas, it won’t work if there’s no electricity. This means your entire family would have to move their beds to the proximity of the wood stove in the kitchen. Also, since your home isn’t designed around it, and people don’t have experience with it, there would be a significant increase in numbers of carbon monoxide poisoning cases, because people wouldn’t know to ventilate the place properly, or know what is dangerous.

The second thing is, do you know how much coal/wood you need to get through the winter? Do you have it? Do you have a place to store it? Is it dry? Do you know where to buy it? Is there even enough on the market for everybody, and can you afford it?

Let’s just say that there is enough coal, but the distribution network doesn’t exist, and people absolutely don’t have adequate storage for the quantities required. Also, burning coal for domestic use in the cities would produce such degradation of air quality we haven’t seen for a century. As for wood, there’s absolutely not enough for everybody. The logistics absolutely aren’t there for the big cities.

As for the light, petroleum and gas powered lights do work, as do the candles. However, using open flame as a light source would increase the number of fires.

Everything you have in the refrigerator would go bad, and you would have to either prepare it for immediate consumption, or throw it out. The same would happen in the big refrigeration centres and shopping malls. Refrigeration is absolutely necessary for ensuring food supply of the kind we are used to, and we can’t just flip a switch and do it the 19th century way. There were 1.5 billion people in the world in the 19th century, and that’s a high estimate, and it also assumes a civilization that is optimized very precisely for that way of life. We are at 7.9 billion now. Returning to the 19th century means there are suddenly no resources for the 6.4 billion people, and it’s not that they would just die. No, they would rob and kill everybody first, and then die. Such a sudden drop in available resources would be an extinction-level event, not a “return to the good old times”.

Modern medicine works on electricity, so no modern medicine.

No refrigeration. Medications require refrigeration, so no medications.

Industry requires electricity, so no industry.

Every damn thing that works on gas and oil also has some part that requires electricity to run.

Every damn thing that used to be wind and water powered in the past is now powered by electricity; think windmills, or water mills. Can’t mill wheat into flower without rebuilding those from scratch. Bakeries used to work on coal and wood; not anymore. Can’t buy bread.

No Internet. No computers. No mobile networks. No radio, no TV. No communications. Can’t call the police, or ambulance, or the fire department. Beyond what you can see, and beyond a distance you can ride a bicycle to in reasonable time, communications are broken and you don’t know what’s going on.

No banks, no ATMs, no cash registers in the stores and no POS devices. No money, because the paper money would become worthless quickly and people would revert to barter, because they no longer have any experience with precious metals as money.

Lawlessness. Armed gangs roaming the streets, robbing houses and apartment blocks. Martial law, where the police and the military might actually be as dangerous as the gangs.

A permanent no-electricity situation isn’t a “oh, we’ll burn coal and wood like our grandparents” situation. It’s the extinction event. The greatest number of deaths in a nuclear war scenario isn’t due to the atomic bombs hitting you, or the radiation; it’s due to a disruption in transportation, refrigeration and so on. The bombs and radiation kill tens of millions. Lack of electricity and fuel kills billions.

That’s why I don’t have a backup plan for the complete lack of electricity; because it’s a doomsday scenario. It is not realistically survivable.

Positive thinking

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I watched a series of YouTube videos by a young woman who is travelling alone across the world in a Land Rover converted into a camper. Yes, it sounds like one of those “conquer your fears, get killed” things, but one thing in particular made me go out on a rant.

At one point, she almost lost a wheel because she didn’t tighten the screws enough, because she was being a strong independent woman and did it herself instead of having a mechanic do it. Then she spent half the video showing how she’s being brave and forward-thinking, and not allowing fears to constrain her, and she’s going to just look forward and not think about the past and waste time thinking “what if”.

The rant I exploded into was “Yeah, that’s such a great idea, it’s good that you didn’t think about anything because your fears and doubts might have motivated you to have the vehicle checked thoroughly for other easily preventable things that might strand you in the middle of a desolate road through the northern wilderness, and that would be such a bad thing, to have your fears rule you. Things such as that loose and corroded electrical connection to the starter motor solenoid, that finally fell off later, exactly in the middle of nowhere, and you had to depend on pure dumb luck of having a guy with another Land Rover close by, and having him fix it.”

I’m trying to identify what is it exactly that’s pissing me off there, and I think it’s the “positive thinking” attitude, or, as I would put it, dealing with issues by refusing to think about them because that causes stressful emotions, and when shit actually happens you “solve” it by making helpless female in distress vocalisations and have someone rescue you so that you can be a strong independent woman successfully dealing with adversity again.

Let me tell you how I approach potential problems, in my negative way that doesn’t give a shit about anyone’s emotions, starting with mine. I make a list of things that would strand me in deep shit if they happened, and I especially focus on things that would leave me in worst shit and would cause the worst emotions, and I identify weaknesses in my position, plans and so on. Then I see if anything can be done about it. If nothing can be done about it, I shrug and go on, because it is pointless to worry about things you can’t influence. For instance, if an asteroid or a nuclear bomb strikes me, I’m dead and there’s nothing I can do about it. However, if electricity goes out for a day, or a week, that’s another matter entirely. Also, if someone hits my car with an RPG and blows it up, it’s a freak event and I can’t prepare for it or do anything about it. However, if I have bald tyres and there’s strong rain and I lose control due to aquaplaning, that’s something I can influence. I can always have good tyres on my car, I can check tyre pressure regularly, and I can adjust speed according to the conditions on the road. Basically, I draw a tree of possibilities and I simply prune the branches that are out of my control, because worrying about those is a waste of effort and stressing about them is pointless. However, it is very much worth the effort to stress over things where I can attenuate or outright prevent problems.

Sure, you can extend this attitude too far and constrain your actions excessively because you see too many things that could possibly go wrong, so you end up not doing anything or going anywhere. The other extreme is being so open-minded your brain falls out, like those people who go on backpacking trips across dangerous areas and news of them being found dead is not really even news at this point, because it happens so often, and this is caused by all this “let’s push your limits” propaganda on social media, where people fail to perceive how those “bold adventurers” are in essence just idiots who regularly fuck up and then have to depend on other people to pull them through. This makes for interesting social media content, but if you make it a lifestyle, you eventually run out of luck and you make the news. Every year we have stupid tourists of this kind going poorly prepared into the Velebit mountain here in Croatia and the mountain rescue service ends up saving their stupid arses. They don’t bring enough water, they dress optimistically and, basically, they all act like stupid children who think that the world is here for their entertainment and adventures and anything dangerous would be “unthinkable” because it causes unpleasant emotions, and so you just don’t think about it and it will all be fine. It’s similar with women who go out alone in the night and think it’s fine because they are wrapped in a bubble of safety caused by thinking they have a “right” not to get raped and robbed. Guess why the prisons are full, dumbass? Because you don’t have a right not to get raped and robbed. It’s just that the state will prosecute and imprison the guy who beat you up and fucked you for hours, then took your phone and wallet and slit your throat for good measure. You have the right to have your murderer/rapist/robber prosecuted, if they can find him.

I get really weirded out when people say that nuclear war is “unthinkable”, which they then translate into “impossible”, and then proceed to act as if they solved that problem and they can provoke a nuclear superpower all they want, because of course there won’t be a nuclear war because that possibility is “too horrible to consider”. Guess what, dumbass: things too horrible for you to consider happen every day. People live their entire lives in ways that are too horrible for you to consider. Your failure to consider very realistic possibilities that cause you to experience strongly unpleasant emotions doesn’t make those possibilities go away; in fact, it actually increases the probability of those events taking place. Not considering the option of being slowly eaten alive by a bear and proceeding to go to a camping trip alone and unarmed doesn’t make you immune to the outcome you found “unthinkable”, it actually makes the statistical intersection of your life and that outcome bigger.

Yugoslavia breakdown timeline

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Nov 29th 1971 The Croatian spring broken, Croat leaders imprisoned.

Feb 21st 1974 The new constitution introduces new state structure that gives the constituent republics much more autonomy, including the right of self-determination. This formed the legal basis for the country’s dissolution in the 1990s.

May 4th, 1980 Tito dies. Country is headed by the Presidency of Yugoslavia, rotating the President on an annual basis between the republics.

May 1986 Slobodan Milošević heads the communist party of Serbia and initiates a nationalist course.

1989 Slobodan Milošević is elected president of Serbia. His Gazimestan speech is seen as an ominous cloud foretelling the grim future of Serbia introducing a centralized and oppressive rule, trying to cancel out the freedoms granted by the 1974 constitution.

Jan 1990 Yugoslav communist party congress; Serbia tries to outvote Slovenia and Croatia and “democratically” establish the new, centralized, Serb-dominated direction of the country. Slovenia walks out. When Serbia tries to proceed without them, Croatia walks out as well, followed by Macedonia and Bosnia-Herzegovina, leaving the Serbs to play with themselves. Communist party of Yugoslavia becomes defunct, and this initiates the process of dissolution of Yugoslavia.

Apr 8th 1990 First multi-party elections in Slovenia. The pro-independence coalition defeated the communist party, starting the transition to the market economy and a liberal political system. The government starts pursuing independence of Slovenia from Yugoslavia.

Apr 22-23rd 1990 First multi-party elections in Croatia. The nationalist party won and ousted the communist party from power.

Aug 17th 1990 The “log revolution” starts; the Croatian Serb minority starts a separatist rebellion, using logs to inhibit railroad and road traffic.

Oct 1990 The Croatian Serbs declare autonomy.

Dec 23rd 1990 The referendum on the independence of Slovenia was held; 88% voted for independence.

May 19th 1991 The referendum on the independence of Croatia was held; 83% turnout, 93% voted in favour of independence. The Croatian Serb uprising is increasing in severity.

Mar 31 1991 The “bloody Easter” at the Plitvice Lakes; the Croatian police tries to intervene against the Serb separatist uprising, the Yugoslav Army intervenes against the Croatian police, siding with the Serb rebels. In retrospective, this is seen as the start of the Serb uprising and the independence war in Croatia, with Croatia’s first combat fatality. The rebel Serb entity declares itself separate from Croatia and seeks unification with Serbia.

May 2nd 1991 Borovo Selo killings in Croatia; the Serb paramilitaries ambushed Croatian policemen, killing 12 and injuring 21. This is a shock to the Croats and the public anger rises against the Serbs, whose “uprisings” were before seen as a joke (where “balvan revolucija”, or “log revolution” was basically a funny meme). It becomes obvious to the Croats that the Serbs actually hate them and want to kill them and take their land; things get really serious, and Croatia prepares for war.

Jun 25th 1991 Croatia declares independence and the dissolution of association with Yugoslavia, but forced by the EU to introduce a three-month moratorium on the decision.

Jun 25th 1991 Appropriate legal acts are passed and Slovenia legally declares independence. This is the formal date of the dissolution of Yugoslavia. In the morning of the next day, Yugoslav army intervenes, but is faced with unified resistance by the Slovenian people and at Jul 7th the Brijuni agreement is made, and the Yugoslav army agrees to withdraw. Slovenia is free, but for Croatia the war is just starting.

Aug 25 1991 Battle for Vukovar begins in Croatia. Throughout Croatia, war rages; the Army barracks are under siege, and the Army attacks targets throughout Croatia.

Sep 8 1991 Republic of Macedonia has a referendum and proclaims independence.

Oct 1st 1991 Siege and bombardment of Dubrovnik. Oct 4th Bombing of Zagreb TV tower. Oct 5th Croatia declares general mobilization. Oct 7th bombing of presidential residence in Zagreb in attempted decapitation strike. The Serbs massacre Croats in various locations where they have the upper hand.

Nov 18 1991 Vukovar falls, the Serbs massacre the captured defenders. International recognition of Croatia begins after all international dreams of salvaging Yugoslavia as a country shatter.

Nov 23 1991 Vance plan, Geneva accords signed; ceasefire is agreed, freezing the occupied parts of Croatia under Serb separatist rule. Croatia has to agree to this in order to buy time to create an army. Having achieved what they could in Croatia, the Serbs turn their sights to Bosnia.

Mar 1st 1992 Bosnia’s Muslims and Croats vote for independence from Yugoslavia; Bosnian Serbs mainly boycott the referendum.

Mar 2rd 1992 Bosnia declares independence. “Yugoslavia” now consists of Serbia and Montenegro, but it controls the entire formerly-federal army, which is a big deal. The local Serbs including the Yugoslav Army perform complete encirclement and siege of Sarajevo. The Serbs quickly seize more than half of Bosnia. The Muslims are caught by surprise due to misguided and failed policies of Alija Izetbegović, and suffer the hardest initial losses. The Croats were prepared by the experience in Croatia and, for the most part, retain control over their part of the land.

Jan 1993 The Muslims back-stab their Croat allies, in a fight for territory; the Croats are seen as a softer target compared to the Serbs. Total mayhem and fratricidal slaughter ensues.

Apr 1993 The UN establishes protection zones.

Mar 1st 1994 The Muslim-Croat alliance is brokered by the USA.

Mar-Jul 1995 Bosnian Serbs under Radovan Karadžić cut off Žepa and Srebrenica areas and “purge” the local Muslims. The UN troops are of course useless. The Serbs seem to have the upper hand in Bosnia and the Western Muslim enclave around Bihać is about to fall. However, this is the point where the Croats decide to finally show what they’ve been doing since 1991, and enter the game.

May 1-3rd 1995 Operation “Flash”, Croatia quickly liberates one of three occupied regions. It becomes obvious that the times of Yugoslav (now basically Serbian) army’s military supremacy have ended and Croatia now has the ability to call the shots.

May 2-3 The rebel Serbs perform a rocket attack on Zagreb, using MLRS with cluster ammunition, killing and injuring civilians across the capital. This outrages and angers the Croats more, if that’s even possible.

Aug 4-7th 1995 Operation “Storm”, Croatia quickly liberates the second, central occupied region. The local Serbs evacuate en masse, fearing reprisals for their actions from 1991 onwards. It is now obvious that the operation “Flash” was not a fluke, but a new pattern. The Croatian army has total military supremacy in the region, and enters Bosnia, making quick work of the Serbs there. The Serbs are panicking, they are evacuating from Banja Luka, fearing the rapid Croatian advance. The Americans intervene to stop the Croatian advance just ahead of Banja Luka falling.

Nov-Dec 1995 The Dayton Agreement formally ends the war in Croatia and Bosnia.

1998 Trouble in Kosovo brewing; the Albanians are starting to kill the Serbian policemen. Yugoslav army intervenes and makes quick work of the Albanian separatists.

1999 Uprising in Kosovo is subdued by the Serbian army, and it looks like a decisive Serbian victory. Macedonia is destabilised by the influx of some 360000 Albanian refugees from Kosovo. However, at this point America decides this constitutes a breach of the general terms they imposed at Dayton, and decide to make an example of Serbia, quenching their desire for military conquest and solving problems with neighbours by means of war. NATO (but de facto America) bombs Yugoslavia into complete submission. The Serbs are forced to abandon Kosovo, and America establishes a military base there.

This is the point where Russia wakes up from its Yeltsin-era slumber and smells the coffee, perceiving that Yugoslavia fell apart, that America bombed it, and concludes that American bombing destroyed Yugoslavia, causing everybody in the region to facepalm every time they say it.