If my analysis from the previous article is correct, the question isn’t whether America will destroy Iran or not. The question is really when and how, because they can’t afford to let it be.

Imagine for a moment that America had its breakdown, and it’s reduced to the state of the Russia of the 1990s. It can’t influence the events in the world in any way. It can’t feed its own military, or its own people. It’s the world’s greatest consumer of humanitarian aid, provided by China, Russia and Europe.

It can’t provide any kind of aid to Israel and Saudi Arabia.

Israel is at that point hugely threatened and has no great probability of survival unless it literally nukes everybody around them, and still they would have no long-term chance of survival, which is why I think the creation of Israel was a very dangerous project, from the position of the Jewish people. It basically puts them all in a single place, surrounded by enemies who want to kill them, and makes them dependent on their influence in America. The Jews were in a better strategic position as a dispersed minority in other nations. As things stand now, they regressed to the point of endangerment that existed directly prior to their Babylonian captivity. They had a state, but it was indefensible. So, Israel wants to act preventively and destroy Iran before it finds itself in a situation where it can no longer count on American military to implement its political goals. Notice how I didn’t mention Saudi Arabia or other Arab states as a threat to Israel; that’s because they are not. Without America and Russia fighting for influence there, the Arabs would be a non-entity. Saudi Arabia wouldn’t survive without America for two weeks; it would be absorbed by the resurgent Turkish caliphate, which would absorb all the Sunni states. From Israeli perspective, Turkey is not dangerous because it has other business, like the Kurds, to preoccupy itself with. Iran, however, would most likely absorb large parts of Iraq, large parts of Syria, and Israel would be swatted like a fly along the way. The Middle East would be divided among the Sunni Caliphate under Turkey and the Shiite Republic under Iran. The Kurds and the Jews would most likely be exterminated.

This outcome is strongly opposed by two major forces in America. The first and obvious is the Jewish lobby. The second are the strategic planners in Pentagon, CIA and similar places. They will try to set the board in such a way that all other players are preoccupied with survival, infighting and wars that weaken them, on a low technological level that makes them a non-entity to an advanced technological civilization or a state. Essentially, reduce everybody to the level where they can’t produce advanced weaponry, where they are economically bankrupt, societally fractured and ideologically and genetically weakened, and make sure no powerful and technologically modern power can emerge and spread across the world during America’s absence. Essentially, they are intentionally harming and weakening the rest of the world and reducing it to chaos, and all in order to buy themselves the time to “reboot”. They saw the collapse of the Soviet Union and the resurgence of Russia under Putin and they know how long the process takes. If, for instance, Iran grabs the Middle East during those 15-20 years, that part of the world will become inaccessible to America. If China absorbs East Asia, that part will be inaccessible to America. If Russia absorbs Europe, that part will be inaccessible to America. And all those regions will accumulate so much power in the meantime, America might actually never re-emerge as a great power, just like Britain didn’t after the WW2. Those are smart people and they know their history, and they know their geopolitical strategy.

Those people are in the positions of actual power since who knows how long. Definitely through the Bush era, when they started implementing the process of reducing the Middle East to chaos. None of that happened by accident. I’ve seen Russians comment it as if this chaos was the result of American incompetence and carelessness, but I see no validity in this line of thinking; I see it all as intentional. A country that is reduced to chaos, and ruled by gangs of thugs, is no threat to a modern technological state, or at least that’s how they see it. I see it differently, because the greatest threat to civilization isn’t another civilization, it’s chaos. Chaos is to a civilization what cancer is to an organism. Chaos is the force of entropy, something that continually attacks and degrades the sophisticated mechanisms that make a civilization work, until it nothing remains but chaos. That’s why chaos is such a dangerous thing to play with, because it has a nasty habit of not remaining safely contained, especially if your own civilization has already been weakened by the mental virus of tolerance and diversity, whereby it was rendered incapable of self-defence against inferior elements. The analysts in the American think-tanks think that if they reduce the Middle East to the level of Libya and Syria, it becomes a non-entity, but that’s not how it actually works. You get chaos, terrorists, fanatics, despair and suffering that breeds more suffering. In fact, a state full of content people is more of a non-entity than a territory filled with desperate fanatics. Chaos tends to produce unpredictable side-effects and it’s impossible to plan for.

To conclude, America doesn’t want to conquer Iran. It just wants to degrade it to the point where it can no longer support a nuclear, space and information technology, and is busy rebuilding its basic utilities (water, electricity, sewage treatment, medical facilities). This is the point from which they expect Iran to require more time to rebuild than America, and that will satisfy them. I can’t see any situation other than Russia preventively nuking America, that would save Iran. If America isn’t stopped, it will keep checking its geostrategic boxes until they get everything to the state where America after 15-20 years of recovery is still in able to resume its position of a world leader. This means Europe needs to be reduced to a shithole, Iran needs to be degraded to the point of having to rebuild power plants and provide water to its population, and, unfortunately, Russia and China need to be reduced to a glass parking lot.

The American version of the story is that Huawei can’t be allowed to install 5G infrastructure because it’s connected to the Chinese government and will build in back doors and spyware.

However, the American version is also that Iran is aggressive against America by bringing their country too close to the American aircraft carriers which threatens freedom and democracy.

I have a version that is much more likely. So far, America had complete technological supremacy, both on the layer of infrastructure and the layer of consumer electronics. Non-American products used key parts that were either produced or designed by America, and America had the ability to completely control the entire technological layer, either for spying or for denying access.

For the first time, America lost the technological supremacy on the infrastructural layer, which would mean, if free market rules applied, that the Chinese who were the first to market with 5G, would install their own technology across the world. This would mean two things. First, the Chinese could now put their own back doors and spyware in the infrastructure, and this is at least formally the reason for all the noise. Second, and most important, the Americans couldn’t put their own back doors and spyware in the infrastructure. This, I think, is far more important. In all the places where Huawei installed their own 5G routers, America would not be able to collect, store and analyse user data without control or supervision, the way it is used to. They would be forced to actually respect other people’s privacy, if not by choice, then by limitations of technology.

Let’s put 5G concerns aside for the moment and forget that the 5G band contains frequencies that were patented by America as weapons; this is important, but it is not the reason America has their panties in a bunch. They would be perfectly fine with installing weaponized microwave technology on each building in each city, as long as they control the technology. The problem is, they don’t. Which brings us to the next point.

When someone is a technological leader or has the strongest economy, he advocates open borders and free market. When he loses that position, he introduces tariffs and sanctions in order to protect himself. Notice how the roles have reversed between USA and China?

So, it’s not about Huawei, and it’s not even about China, or about spying. It’s about America losing technological and economic supremacy. If America was a normal country with a normal economy, that wouldn’t be so bad. It could fall behind, then get stronger and leapfrog the competition, the way it happens in sport all the time. The problem is, America isn’t a normal country. It’s a country that managed to abuse its dominant position after WW2 in so many ways, from currency to economy, technology and culture, and by abusing I mean thoroughly depending on the fact that it can force other countries to finance their debt, and infiltrate their intelligence assets into vassal countries’ press, politics and education, to the point of total control. America got so dependent on printing trillions of dollars out of thin air and passing the bill to the rest of the world, and using aircraft carriers if anyone had a problem with that, it became a cornerstone of their economy. Their entire economy is based on printing money, using VC funds to pump it into startups, overhyping and overinflating their value at the IPO, and using the GDP data obtained from the stock market to print more money, because American economy is so huge. Most of that economy is nothing but air. That’s why all those comforting stories Americans keep repeating, about Russia having economy the size of Italy, are profoundly misleading, because something must be very wrong about those numbers, because they don’t explain the reality on the ground. The reality on the ground is that America is hugely in debt, and the expectation is that countries that are truly technologically and economically powerful have a huge economic sufficit. That’s how America used to be, how Japan used to be until recently, and how China is now. Economically powerful countries create new and abundant financial assets and use them to go around the world and buy. They don’t create debt, they lend money to others and put them in debt. The fact that America is tens of trillions of dollars in debt, and that’s only the actually declared part, makes it obvious that its economy is not real, because real economies create wealth. This means America can’t afford to let go of the dominant position it’s been abusing since the end of the WW2. Their entire country would collapse. It’s not just that they wouldn’t be able to finance their military. The entire structure is built upon foundations of debt and illusion. If their economy collapsed to realistic proportions, based only on what they could actually make and consume without magic tricks of printing tons of aircraft-carrier based money, it’s their economy that might prove to be quite modestly sized. And that’s the reason why they are fighting this process, tooth and nail. They literally can’t afford to lose the dominant global position, because they won’t just be leapfrogged by China or Russia, then do better and leapfrog them back, as a healthy country would be able to do. No; if they lose the no1 position, they will crumble into post-apocalyptic rubble, and take the whole civilization with them. That’s why it’s so difficult for me to explain what I see to other people: because they don’t understand those facts. That’s why my analysis can sound crazy and yet be supported by the events. The way the world actually works and the way people think it works are two vastly different things.

So, when you understand that America can’t afford to lose the dominant position, and yet it is in a position where they can’t maintain it because they already bought themselves some time by removing all rational restraints on money printing in 2008, they got their economy addicted to injections of free money just to keep it going, they impoverished the rest of the world by exporting their inflation overseas (because other countries have to buy dollars with real assets in order to buy oil), and they understood in 2008 that this game is over, and all they could do is buy themselves some time in order to have the collapse on their own terms. All those sanctions and restrictions are merely stop-gap measures. What they are actually doing is destroying the potential competition that could arise in the years of their absence from the dominant position on the world scene. They are preparing the ground in such a way that everybody else is in a worse mess than they will be, so that when they recover, they can just assume the mantle of a world leading power. They destabilized the Arab countries in order to force them to spend all the oil money they accumulated, so that they can’t use it for increasing their control of the world in America’s absence. They destabilized Europe by importing all kinds of worthless human garbage there, so that it turns into an African hellhole mired in endless civil wars and poverty, and forced it to degrade relations with Russia because Russia was a huge market for Europe, and that threatened America, because an alliance between Europe and Russia would have naturally formed in America’s absence and would have taken over the mantle of leadership of the Western civilization. And, unfortunately, the plan for dealing with China and Russia is a nuclear war. They will turn China and Russia into a nuclear wasteland, and put an end to competition that way. That, at least, is what they seem to be planning. However, it is my opinion that they miscalculated. There will be no recovery.