On Sun, 28 Nov 2004 13:58:51 +0100, PB wrote:

> Imas pravo - nadao sam se konkretnim podacima a ne rekla kazala tumacenjima 
> lokalnog fratra :)
> 
> Moje omiljeno stivo je recimo AIDS Update od UNAIDS-a. Recimo na: 
> http://www.unaids.org/wad2004/EPIupdate2004_html_en/Epi04_05_en.htm#P64_10688 
> se govori o Africi. Tamo se najveci pad penetracije AIDSa vidi u Ugandi. Sa 
> 13% (1990) na 4.1% na kraju 2003. U istom stivu ima dovoljno informacija da 
> se povuku neke paralele. Figure 11 i 12 su interesantne: broj "saranja" se 
> nije mjenjao,

To uopce nije istina. Ovo sto si naveo je tipican primjer falsificiranog
izvjestaja. Naime, procitaj ovo:

http://bmj.bmjjournals.com/cgi/content/full/328/7444/891

"But evidently even more important changes in sexual behaviour had occurred
in Uganda. In the face of the then pervasive national campaign to encourage
sticking to regular partners ("zero grazing," fig 1), reported multiple
partner behaviour dropped noticeably. The Global Programme on AIDS surveys
found that the proportion of men with one or more casual partners in the
previous year fell from 35% in 1989 to 15% in 1995, and the proportion of
women from 16% to 6%.5-7 Notably, the proportion of men reporting three or
more non-regular partners fell from 15% to 3% (see bmj.com).
Because people with large numbers of sex partners are most likely to spread
sexually transmitted diseases, such changes are profound. Indeed, modelling
of HIV interventions in rural Uganda suggests that such degrees of partner
reduction could have had a substantial effect on incidence. Although a
direct causal link cannot be definitively established between the campaign
to promote monogamy and partner reduction, and the concomitant fall in the
incidence of HIV, it seems likely that it was critical to the success in
Uganda."

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